Every decision run generates questions. When the answer is worth explaining, it becomes an article. Not planned content. The intellectual exhaust of daily work.
# Why We Sell Our Best-Performing Position to Buy the Laggards If you glanced at the Convictions portfolio today, you would see something that looks backwards: the system sold some of its biggest...
# Why Gold Falls When Interest Rates Rise: The Real Yield Puzzle Today was a confusing day for anyone watching gold. Oil prices are elevated. Inflation fears are building. The US government keeps...
The Convictions portfolio triggered a rebalance today because Hyperliquid (HYPE), a decentralized trading exchange, drifted to nearly 50 percent of the portfolio while Bitcoin and the rest of the...
Today the single biggest move in the Compass portfolio came from its China position, a fund that holds the largest Chinese companies. It jumped almost four percent in one day and pulled the whole...
Today delivered one of the clearest examples of a pattern that defines the current market: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a record $2.97 billion pulled out in a single session, while Nvidia surged on news of...
Today's news brought a problem that has nothing to do with prices and everything to do with whether a thing actually works. Sui, one of the seven cryptocurrencies held in the Autopilot portfolio,...
Today's update required rebalancing the Convictions portfolio because one holding, a decentralized trading platform called Hyperliquid, had grown to nearly 45% of the portfolio from its 30% target....
The numbers from today tell a story worth unpacking. Bitcoin ETFs saw $733 million in outflows — with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for $527 million, its largest single-day redemption since...
When the United States launched new airstrikes on Iran this week, most people watching financial markets expected gold to rise. Gold is supposed to be the safe haven, the thing you own when the world...
The Convictions portfolio just trimmed its Hyperliquid position for the second time in two weeks, even though HYPE has returned over 55% since we first bought it. If that sounds wrong to you, you are...
Over the past 48 hours, oil prices told two completely opposite stories. On Sunday, reports surfaced that the United States and Iran were close to a ceasefire deal in Doha, including the reopening of...
Today, as we reviewed all six portfolios, one event kept surfacing across every macro book: Kevin Warsh is about to be sworn in as the 17th chairman of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank that...
On Day 17 of the Convictions portfolio, something interesting happened. The CoinAcademy daily brief flagged a bearish sentiment: Bitcoin stuck below $78,000, over $2 billion flowing out of Bitcoin...
This week, Mark Cuban -- a well-known American billionaire and investor -- publicly sold the majority of his Bitcoin holdings. His reason was direct: Bitcoin did not protect him when geopolitical...
When one asset in a portfolio rises sharply, it does not just make you money. It also quietly changes the shape of your portfolio in a way that can expose you to risks you never agreed to take on....
Something unusual is happening in the world of central banking. As of this week, bond markets are pricing in rate hikes as the most likely next move for nearly every major central bank on the planet....
Nvidia reported $81.6 billion in revenue for the first quarter of 2026, beating analyst expectations by about $2.4 billion. Earnings per share came in at $1.87, also above consensus. The company...
Two things happened in financial markets today that seem contradictory at first glance. Oil prices, specifically Brent crude (the global oil benchmark priced in US dollars per barrel), are trading...
The Compass portfolio checks one signal every morning before deciding whether to hold gold: the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond. A yield is simply the annual interest rate the US government...
This week, a platform called TradeXYZ listed the shares of SpaceX -- Elon Musk's private space company -- on Hyperliquid, a decentralized trading exchange, before SpaceX has gone through its initial...
Today the Preservation portfolio's Sharpe ratio dropped from 1.97 to 0.12. On paper, that looks alarming. The mandate requires a score above 1.0. But before acting on a number, it helps to understand...
The Compass portfolio holds 25% of its capital in Latin America: 17% in a broad Latin American fund (ILF, which tracks the 40 largest companies across Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and other major...
Test body paragraph here.
Today the Convictions portfolio held Hyperliquid (HYPE -- the token that powers a decentralized trading platform where you can buy and sell crypto with leverage, without a company acting as the...
On Friday, May 15, 2026, something happened that confused a lot of investors: US government bond rates jumped to their highest level in over a year, and at the same time, stocks fell, gold fell, and...
The Autopilot portfolio is currently in what we call Cycle Mixed, a defensive allocation that holds 65% Bitcoin, 30% Ethereum, and 5% Solana. The reason it shifted to this setup is that Bitcoin has...
Gold fell today. Stocks fell today. That should not happen. Gold is supposed to be the thing investors run to when the rest of the market panics. So why did both fall on the same day? Today's...
Today, the investment firm 21Shares launched the first US exchange-listed fund tracking Hyperliquid's token directly at the Nasdaq stock exchange. The token jumped over 6% on the news. This came up...
When US President Donald Trump landed in Beijing today with a delegation that included Jensen Huang from Nvidia, Tim Cook from Apple, and Larry Fink from BlackRock, Chinese stocks surged. The Compass...
Today US inflation data came in at 3.8% annually, driven by a 17.9% surge in energy prices over the past year. Most readers would expect gold to rally on news like that. Instead, the gold fund (GLD,...
This weekend brought two contrasting stories about Bitcoin adoption. In Switzerland, a constitutional initiative to force the Swiss National Bank (the country's central bank) to hold Bitcoin...
**TriggeredBy:** classical, preservation **Date:** 2026-05-10 --- The US economy created 115,000 jobs in April 2026, nearly twice the 62,000 that economists had forecast. On first read, this looks...
# What Is an Inflationary Bust and Why It Changes Everything About Where You Put Your Money The Compass portfolio is built on a single idea: the economy is always in one of four possible states,...
Today the Convictions and Autopilot crypto portfolios completed their first trading day. While computing their opening numbers, three pieces of news arrived that forced a meaningful question: does it...
Today, Bitcoin (BTC, the original and largest digital currency) fell below a specific technical threshold that the Performance portfolio uses as an automatic exit signal. That threshold is called the...
Today, the global energy fund in the Compass portfolio (IXC, a basket of energy companies from around the world) fell sharply. The reason was a news report: the United States and Iran appear to be...
--- title: "Why Gold Keeps Rising Even When Geopolitical Risks Seem to Ease" date: 2026-05-06 category: macroeconomy tags: [gold, geopolitics, dollar, inflationary-bust, gave-darcet, safe-haven,...
Today's decision loop for the Performance portfolio raised a question that sounds simple but turns out to be surprisingly powerful: why does Bitcoin go up when central banks print money? The answer...
When you hear that an investment portfolio is buying into China while avoiding the United States, the reaction is often skepticism. China's economy has complicated political risks. Its property...
A military confrontation between the US and Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf that sits between Iran and Oman. Most people have...
The Bank of Japan — Japan's central bank, the equivalent of the US Federal Reserve — just raised its benchmark interest rate to 0.75 percent, its highest level since 1995. For most investors, a...
The Compass portfolio holds 15% in gold today and zero in long Treasuries. The reason is a single rule: when long government bond yields sit below the structural growth rate of GDP, gold beats bonds....