Daily log
27 entriesD26
Warn
HOLDThis portfolio follows a rules based recipe across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a few other large coins, and it only changes its mix on a weekly schedule rather than reacting to any single day. Today was rough: a broad crypto sell off hit every holding except one small artificial intelligence linked token, and the portfolio set a new low for the experiment. That is uncomfortable but it is exactly what a high risk crypto book does in a risk off stretch. The rules say do not touch the mix outside the Monday check unless one fast moving coin balloons past its cap, and none has, so we hold.WatchingWe are watching the two signals that drive Monday's check: whether the global money supply is still expanding and whether Bitcoin is above its long term average price. If Bitcoin slips below that average and stays there, the recipe shifts to a more defensive mix with less of the high risk coins.The portfolio just set a new low point for the experiment, so drawdown is the live risk; the rules deliberately prevent panic selling into it.
D25
Warn
HOLDToday is Monday, so Autopilot does its weekly cycle check. The two conditions it monitors are: whether global money supply (M2) is growing, and whether Bitcoin is above its 200-day moving average (the average price over the last 200 days, used as a simple indicator of trend direction). Global M2 is expanding, so the first condition is green. But Bitcoin today sits at around $71,000, below its 200-day average of about $79,000, so the second condition is red. One condition green and one red points toward a CYCLE MIXED phase in the framework, which would call for shifting the portfolio to 65% Bitcoin, 30% Ethereum, and 5% Solana. However, the rules require this signal to hold for five consecutive trading days before executing any change, to avoid reacting to temporary moves. Today is day one of that count. Separately, Sui (SUI, an emerging blockchain network in the portfolio) experienced three separate outages in 48 hours after a software update, which is worth noting as an operational risk. The Autopilot rules do not trigger a trade on news events, only on cycle signals, so no trade fires today. The portfolio also reached a new drawdown low as the broad crypto market sold off.WatchingWe are watching whether Bitcoin climbs back above its 200-day average in the next week. If it does, the cycle stays in CYCLE ON mode and no rebalance is needed. If it stays below for five consecutive days, the portfolio rebalances to reduce Ethereum and Solana exposure in favor of Bitcoin. Also watching Sui network stability as the team deploys a post-mortem fix.New portfolio low at $9,440.91. Bitcoin below 200-day moving average (cycle signal: day 1 of 5 for CYCLE MIXED). SUI v1.72 outage risk noted.
D24
Warn
HOLDThis systematic portfolio holds a spread of major crypto: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Sui (SUI), Chainlink (LINK), Render (RNDR), and Aave (AAVE). It only changes its mix on Mondays, when it checks two cycle signals, so today being a Sunday the plan is simply to hold. Prices were soft across the board, with the riskier coins falling more than Bitcoin, which is normal when the mood turns cautious. One name needs flagging: Sui suffered its second major network outage in five months, meaning the blockchain stopped processing for a stretch and validators had to coordinate an emergency fix. For a chain that sells itself on speed and reliability, repeated downtime is a real problem.WatchingWe are watching Sui closely. The rule of thumb is that two outages is a data point but a third would become a reason to drop it entirely. We are also watching Bitcoin's long-term trend line ahead of Monday's scheduled cycle check, which decides whether we keep tilting toward the riskier coins or shift more weight back to Bitcoin.Sui, about 10 percent of this book, has now had two major outages in five months. A third would trigger a full deselection review.
D23
Note
HOLDGood recovery day for this systematic crypto portfolio. All seven tokens rose, led by Chainlink (LINK, which connects real-world data to blockchain applications) at +4.1% and Render (RNDR, which provides computing power for AI and graphics) at +4.8%. The portfolio is still in its current cycle phase and the next check happens Monday, when we evaluate two conditions: whether global money supply is expanding and whether Bitcoin is above its 200-day moving average. Sui (SUI, an alternative blockchain network) experienced its second major outage in five months, which raises reliability concerns, but the allocation check only runs on Mondays.WatchingMonday's cycle check is the next meaningful event. We will evaluate whether the two conditions for the current phase still hold. The Sui outage is worth monitoring closely: a third outage in the coming weeks would be a serious red flag for the reliability of this network, even though today it represents only 10% of the portfolio. Render continues to outperform the rest of the portfolio significantly (up 26.6% vs the portfolio being down overall), driven by the AI infrastructure spending boom.
D22
Note
HOLDCrypto markets stabilized today after yesterday sharp correction, where Bitcoin fell below 73,000 dollars and investors pulled 733 million dollars out of Bitcoin ETFs, which are exchange-traded funds you buy like a stock, in a single session. Today is Friday. Autopilot cycle check only runs on Mondays: it asks whether global money supply is expanding and whether Bitcoin is above its 200-day average price, then shifts the allocation between a more aggressive and more defensive mix. No mid-week changes happen unless Solana weight exceeds 25 percent, which it does not today at 14.78 percent. Render Network through RNDR, a decentralized computing marketplace, continues to be the standout performer at over 20 percent since launch. Worth noting: the Sui network, held here as SUI, suffered its second major technical outage in five months today, raising questions about its reliability.WatchingWe are watching Monday June 1 for the next cycle check. The key signal is whether Bitcoin stays above its 200-day moving average, the average price over the last 200 daily closes. If it drops below that level and holds there, we shift to a more defensive allocation with more Bitcoin and less Solana and Ethereum. The Sui outage is a flag we will factor into that Monday review.
D21
Note
HOLDCrypto brief: BEARISH. BTC below $73K, $733M ETF outflows. Cycle assessment: BTC still above its 200-day moving average (accumulation zone intact). M2 global liquidity trend remains supportive of the bull cycle phase. No phase change conditions met — 5-trading-day hysteresis timer not triggered. Autopilot remains in bull phase allocation: BTC 30% / ETH 22% / SOL 15% / SUI 10% / LINK 8% / RNDR 8% / AAVE 7%. Portfolio at -4.63% ($9,537) reflecting altcoin beta underperformance vs BTC since launch. HOLD — cycle conditions do not justify defensive rotation.WatchingBTC crossing below its 200-day MA (phase-change trigger). M2 global liquidity YoY turning negative. SOL 25% cap — would require immediate trim if breached.
D20
Note
HOLDThe broad crypto sell-off triggered by US-Iran escalation is affecting all positions in Autopilot. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency) are both down. Solana (SOL, a fast blockchain network) is absorbing the correction in line with other majors. The outlier on the upside continues to be Render (RNDR), a decentralized computing network that lets people rent out GPU computing power, which has held its gains despite market-wide pressure, reflecting idiosyncratic demand for GPU infrastructure as AI workloads continue to grow. SUI (a newer blockchain) is roughly flat from entry. LINK (Chainlink, an oracle network that connects smart contracts to real-world data) and AAVE (a lending protocol) are negative but within normal ranges.WatchingWe are watching whether Solana's allocation stays below the 25% hard cap that triggers an automatic trim. At current prices, SOL is within bounds. The broader question for Autopilot is whether the current market correction is a shake-out before a resumption of the bull trend, or the early stage of a longer bear market. BTC holding above $70,000 and recovering toward $75,000 would be a positive sign.
D19
Note
HOLDMost of the crypto market dipped today, and Autopilot felt it across its seven positions. The portfolio is designed to follow a systematic cycle signal that gets checked every Monday. Yesterday was Memorial Day, so the Monday check was deferred. The two signals it tracks are: (1) whether the global money supply (called M2) is growing compared to a year ago, and (2) whether Bitcoin is trading above its 200-day average price. Based on available data, Bitcoin is still below its 200-day average, which keeps the portfolio in a cautious phase. The bright spot today was Render (RNDR, a token tied to AI computing infrastructure), which jumped 8 percent and is now up 32 percent since entry. Aave (AAVE, the largest decentralized lending protocol) was flat. Everything else was red, led by Sui (SUI) at -2.6 percent and Ethereum (ETH) at -2.4 percent.WatchingWe are watching whether Bitcoin can reclaim its 200-day moving average (roughly around $83,000 to $85,000 based on recent price history). If it does, the Autopilot would shift to a more aggressive allocation with larger positions in Ethereum and Solana. Until then, the portfolio stays defensive. The next formal cycle check will be Monday June 1.
D18
Note
HOLDA strong recovery day. The portfolio flipped positive for the first time since mid-May, crossing back above $10,000 after spending over a week in negative territory. The biggest contributor was Render (RNDR, a token for a network that connects people who need computing power for AI and 3D graphics with people who have spare GPU capacity), which surged about 14% in 24 hours and is now up 22% since inception. Sui (SUI, a newer blockchain focused on fast transactions) also continues to outperform at +8% since launch. Bitcoin and Ethereum are still slightly underwater but recovering. Today is Sunday, not a Monday cycle-check day, so no phase assessment is performed. The portfolio remains in its current allocation.WatchingWe are watching Monday's cycle check closely. The two conditions that determine the portfolio's allocation phase are: (1) whether global M2 money supply (the total amount of money circulating in the global economy) is expanding compared to a year ago, and (2) whether Bitcoin is trading above its 200-day moving average. Currently Bitcoin is below that line, which keeps us in a defensive Cycle Mixed or Cycle Off phase. If the Hormuz deal sends risk appetite surging and Bitcoin reclaims that level, we could shift to a more aggressive allocation.
D17
Note
HOLDA green day across the board, with Ethereum (the smart contract platform) leading at +2.4% and Render (RNDR, an AI compute network that connects GPU supply to demand) gaining 4.4%. The portfolio is recovering from its deepest drawdown of -9.5% reached earlier this week. Today is Saturday so no cycle check (those happen Mondays only). The current phase is Cycle Mixed, meaning one of two conditions is met: global money supply is expanding, but Bitcoin remains below its 200-day average. All seven positions are behaving as expected for this phase.WatchingWhether Bitcoin can climb back above its 200-day moving average. If it does and holds for 5 consecutive trading days, we would shift from Cycle Mixed to Cycle On, which means increasing Solana from 15% to 20% and reducing the Bitcoin allocation. Monday check will assess conditions.
D16
Note
HOLDCrypto markets were broadly lower today. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency and the network most decentralized applications run on), and Solana (SOL, a fast and cheap blockchain) all fell. Sui (SUI, an emerging blockchain with a different technical design), Chainlink (LINK, a network connecting blockchains to real-world data), and Aave (AAVE, a lending protocol for borrowing and lending crypto) also declined. Render (RNDR, a network renting out graphics processing power for AI and digital art) was essentially flat. Today is Saturday, which means the cycle phase check does not run. The next full check happens Monday.WatchingWe are watching whether Bitcoin is above or below its 200-day average price when Monday's check runs. That single data point determines the portfolio cycle phase and whether the current allocation needs to change. Bitcoin is currently below that average, which if confirmed Monday alongside money-supply data would point toward the conservative Cycle Off allocation.
D15
Note
HOLDSmaller crypto tokens with specific real-world use cases bounced today: Render (RNDR, a token that connects spare graphics cards to artificial intelligence workloads) and Chainlink (LINK, the infrastructure layer that lets blockchain smart contracts access real-world data like prices and weather) both gained, while Bitcoin and Ethereum stayed roughly flat. The portfolio is currently in Cycle Mixed phase, meaning one of the two conditions for full risk-on positioning is present and the other is not. Specifically, Bitcoin remains below its 200-day moving average but global money supply is not clearly contracting either. Today is Friday, and the Autopilot mandate only performs a full cycle review on Mondays, so no changes are considered.WatchingWhether next Monday's cycle check shows both conditions pointing in the same direction. If Bitcoin recovers above its 200-day average while money supply is growing, we shift to full Cycle On allocations and add back Solana exposure. If money supply confirms a contraction, we reduce altcoins and move toward heavier Bitcoin and USDC (a dollar-pegged digital currency used as a cash equivalent in crypto portfolios).
D14
Note
HOLDNearly flat on the day for the systematic crypto portfolio. Sui (an emerging blockchain with a unique technical architecture) rose about 2.6 percent, and Aave (the dominant lending protocol in decentralized finance) gained slightly. These offset small declines in Bitcoin, Ethereum (the second-largest cryptocurrency, used as the backbone for most decentralized applications), and Solana. Render (a token for a network that connects people who need computing power for AI and 3D graphics with people who have spare graphics cards) dipped slightly. The portfolio remains in Cycle Mixed phase (only one of the two conditions for full risk-on is met: global money supply is expanding, but Bitcoin is below its 200-day average). The next cycle check is Monday.WatchingWe are watching whether Bitcoin can hold above its 200-day moving average for five consecutive trading days. That is the hysteresis rule, meaning we need to see a sustained trend, not just a one-day pop. If both conditions flip to positive, we would shift from Cycle Mixed to Cycle On, which increases the allocation to Solana and reduces the Bitcoin overweight.
D13
Note
HOLDAll seven positions gained today, with Render (RNDR, a decentralized GPU computing network that lets AI companies and 3D artists rent computing power without going through Amazon or Google) leading at plus 5.3 percent. The portfolio broader recovery continues after a rough stretch in mid-May, though it remains below its starting value. Today is Wednesday, not Monday, so the portfolio cycle-phase check (which asks whether global money supply is expanding and whether Bitcoin is above its 200-day price average) does not run today. The current phase remains Cycle Mixed, meaning one of the two conditions is met but not both, calling for a 65 percent Bitcoin, 30 percent Ethereum, 5 percent Solana allocation. Solana sits at 15 percent of the portfolio, well below the 25 percent cap that would trigger an immediate trim.WatchingWe are watching whether both cycle conditions turn positive at the same time: expanding global money supply and Bitcoin above its 200-day average. If both fire, the portfolio shifts to Cycle On (50 percent Bitcoin, 30 percent Ethereum, 20 percent Solana). The Monday check will give the formal update on those signals.
D12
Note
HOLDTuesday is a monitoring day for Autopilot -- the portfolio only reviews its major allocation between Bitcoin, Ethereum (a programmable blockchain network), and Solana (a fast blockchain used for apps and finance) on Mondays, when we assess the two cycle conditions. Today we confirmed that Solana has not grown beyond its safety cap of 25 percent of the portfolio. It has actually fallen below its target as the token underperformed, reducing its share well below the cap. The portfolio edged up slightly today, driven mainly by SUI (an emerging blockchain network with a growing app ecosystem) and Render (a protocol connecting spare graphics computing power to AI and 3D rendering demand).WatchingWe are watching whether Monday's cycle check confirms the current Cycle Mixed phase -- where Bitcoin dominates the allocation because only one of our two conditions is active. The key question is whether the global money supply (M2, a measure of how much money is circulating worldwide) resumes growing after slowing in recent months. A sustained M2 expansion combined with Bitcoin above its 200-day average would shift us to Cycle On and allow us to increase Solana exposure.
D11
Note
HOLDA painful day for Autopilot, which dropped 2.5% as the geopolitical selloff hit every major cryptocurrency. Bitcoin fell nearly 2%, Ethereum (ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency and the foundation for most decentralized applications) dropped over 3%, and Solana (SOL, a fast blockchain popular with developers and traders) lost over 2%. Render (RNDR, a token that connects spare computer graphics power to people who need it for AI and 3D rendering) is now down over 9% from entry, the deepest loss in the portfolio. The only bright spot is Aave (AAVE, the largest decentralized lending platform where people borrow and lend crypto without a bank), which is still positive at positive 1.3%. Today is Sunday, so no cycle check happens. Monday we run the full cycle assessment: checking whether the global money supply (M2, the total amount of money in circulation worldwide) is expanding and whether Bitcoin is above its 200-day moving average. Both conditions determine whether Autopilot stays in its current Cycle Mixed allocation or shifts.WatchingTomorrow is Monday, which means the weekly cycle check. We are watching whether Bitcoin can hold above its 200-day moving average despite this selloff. If it drops below that level and stays there for five consecutive trading days, Autopilot shifts from its current allocation to a more defensive posture with 80% Bitcoin and 20% in dollar-pegged stablecoins. The geopolitical situation makes this a realistic possibility.
D10
Note
HOLDA quiet day for Autopilot. Bitcoin (BTC -- the largest and most widely held cryptocurrency) was essentially flat, Ethereum (ETH -- the programmable blockchain that most decentralized applications are built on) edged up modestly, and Solana (SOL -- a fast, low-cost blockchain competing with Ethereum) barely moved. The portfolio is in Cycle On mode, the phase where both required conditions are met: global money supply is expanding and Bitcoin is above its long-term price average. Cycle On means holding 50 percent Bitcoin, 30 percent Ethereum, 20 percent Solana. Today is Sunday, and the formal cycle check only runs on Mondays, so no new assessment was made today.WatchingTomorrow is Monday, which triggers the Autopilot cycle check. We will verify whether Bitcoin is still above its 200-day moving average and whether global money supply (M2 -- the broad measure of money circulating worldwide) is still growing compared to a year ago. If both conditions hold, the portfolio stays in Cycle On. If one flips, we shift to Cycle Mixed (65 percent Bitcoin, 30 percent Ethereum, 5 percent Solana), which reduces the exposure to higher-volatility altcoins.
D9
Note
HOLDAutopilot fell today as crypto markets pulled back broadly. Bitcoin, Ethereum (the second-largest cryptocurrency, which powers most decentralized applications), and Solana (a faster, cheaper blockchain competing for developers and users) all fell in line with the broader market selloff. Today is Saturday, which means no cycle check is required. Autopilot only reassesses its allocation on Mondays, when it checks two conditions: whether the amount of money circulating in the global economy is growing, and whether Bitcoin is above its long-term price average. Notably, Bitcoin is currently trading below its 200-day average, one of the two conditions for the most cautious portfolio phase. This will be formally reviewed on Monday.WatchingWe are watching Monday's cycle check closely. If Bitcoin is still below its 200-day average when we check, and if global money supply growth is also unfavorable, Autopilot would shift toward its most defensive allocation: more Bitcoin, less Ethereum and Solana, and a portion in cash. This is not a weekend decision. The rule is Monday-only, no exceptions.
D8
Note
HOLDAutopilot adjusts its allocation based on two signals: whether global money supply is expanding, and whether Bitcoin is above its 200-day moving average, the average of Bitcoin's price over the past 200 trading days used as a long-term trend gauge. Global money supply is still expanding, but Bitcoin has been trading below its 200-day average for seven consecutive trading days. With one of the two conditions failing, Autopilot is in Cycle Mixed: a more defensive setup holding 65% Bitcoin, 30% Ethereum, and 5% Solana. All three fell hard today as the broader market sold off, making this Autopilot's worst single day since launch. Today is Friday so no cycle review runs. The next full check is Monday, May 18.WatchingWe are watching whether Bitcoin can sustain a recovery above its 200-day moving average. Five consecutive trading days back above that level would shift Autopilot to the full Cycle On allocation with 50% Bitcoin, 30% Ethereum, and 20% Solana. If Bitcoin keeps declining further below that average, we will evaluate whether the Cycle Off conditions are forming.
D7
Note
HOLDA quiet day across the portfolio, with Bitcoin and most assets ending roughly where they started. Two structural positives worth noting this week: Kevin Warsh, a former US central bank governor known for his crypto-positive views, was confirmed as the new head of the Federal Reserve (the US central bank). And Chainlink (LINK, a service that connects blockchain applications to real-world data) was integrated by DTCC, the main infrastructure company that settles US financial market trades. Both validate the long-term theses behind positions in this portfolio. Today is Thursday, not Monday, so no full cycle phase review is due.WatchingWe are watching for Monday's cycle review, when two conditions will be checked: whether global money supply (M2) is still expanding compared to a year ago, and whether Bitcoin is trading above its 200-day average price. Those two checks determine whether the portfolio stays in Cycle On (maximum crypto exposure) or shifts to a more defensive mix. We are also watching Render (RNDR, an AI compute infrastructure token), which is the weakest performer in the portfolio at about 5% below launch, to see if momentum turns or if another AI-infrastructure token should take its slot at the monthly review.
D6
Note
HOLDBroad crypto weakness today on macro uncertainty from high inflation and elevated oil prices. Bitcoin fell about 1.3 percent, Ethereum (the programmable money platform that powers decentralized applications and smart contracts) dropped about 0.7 percent, and Solana (a high-speed blockchain network known for low transaction fees) slipped about 3.2 percent. No Monday cycle review today since it is Wednesday. The portfolio holds Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and several infrastructure tokens across different roles in the crypto ecosystem. Solana sits at roughly 15 percent of the portfolio, well below the 25 percent trim trigger. The next scheduled cycle check is Monday, when we verify whether the two key signals remain intact.WatchingWe are watching whether Bitcoin holds above its 200-day moving average (the average price over the past 200 trading days, a commonly used long-term trend line). Bitcoin is currently well above that level. If it dropped below and stayed there for five consecutive trading days, the allocation would shift toward a more defensive posture with more Bitcoin and less Solana. Monday is the next scheduled review.
D5
Note
HOLDAutopilot (a systematic crypto portfolio that shifts its allocation based on two cycle signals checked every Monday) was down 1.26% today as the broader altcoin market pulled back. Ethereum (ETH, the second-largest blockchain, which powers most decentralized applications) fell 1.7%, Render (RNDR, a protocol that connects idle GPU computing power to AI and 3D rendering demand) fell 3.8%, and Aave (AAVE, the leading on-chain lending protocol) fell nearly 3%. Solana (SOL, a high-speed blockchain platform) was the sole bright spot, ticking up slightly after news that developers launched a major test of Alpenglow, a new consensus system designed to dramatically speed up transaction finality. Bitcoin again showed relative strength, barely moving on a day when riskier assets fell. Today is Tuesday; the cycle check (which looks at global money supply trends and Bitcoin's 200-day average price) only runs on Mondays, so no phase assessment was made.WatchingWe are watching Monday's cycle check (May 18). Based on current conditions (Bitcoin appears to be trading below its 200-day average price, a common indicator of whether the market trend is upward, while global money supply appears still to be expanding), the cycle phase would currently read as CYCLE MIXED, which calls for a heavier Bitcoin weighting (65% BTC, 30% ETH, 5% SOL). We will confirm this reading on Monday with fresh data before deciding whether a rebalance is needed.
D4
Note
HOLDAutopilot is up over 5% in its first three full days, led by SUI (a newer blockchain platform competing with Ethereum and Solana) which surged over 11%. The cycle check only runs on Monday, so today is a HOLD by design. The current phase is CYCLE ON (both conditions met: global money supply is expanding and Bitcoin is above its 200-day moving average), which means the portfolio runs its full risk-on allocation across seven tokens. Solana (SOL) is at 15%, comfortably below the 25% immediate trim trigger.WatchingTomorrow's Monday cycle check. We will verify whether global money supply (M2, the total amount of money circulating in the world economy) is still expanding year-over-year and whether Bitcoin remains above its 200-day average. If either condition flips, the portfolio shifts from CYCLE ON to CYCLE MIXED, reducing smaller positions.
D3
Note
HOLDToday is Sunday, and Autopilot runs its full cycle check only on Mondays. The portfolio holds Bitcoin alongside Ethereum (ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency and the platform underlying most decentralized applications), Solana (SOL, a fast and lower-cost blockchain alternative), and several other protocol tokens. The news today, Bitcoin falling below 80,000 dollars on new Iran strike reports, is relevant context for tomorrow's Monday check. The two conditions Autopilot monitors are whether the global money supply is growing, which historically benefits crypto, and whether Bitcoin is trading above its 200-day moving average, the average price over the past 200 trading days that filters out daily noise and reveals the underlying trend. Bitcoin's drop today may affect whether the second condition holds. Monday's check will give the full picture.WatchingWe are watching Bitcoin's position relative to its 200-day moving average heading into Monday. If Bitcoin is decisively below that trend line and stays there, the portfolio shifts toward a more conservative allocation with more Bitcoin and less in the smaller tokens. We will assess formally tomorrow.
D2
Note
HOLDAutopilot is two days old. The portfolio checks two conditions every Monday: whether Bitcoin is trading above its 200-day average price, and whether the global money supply is expanding. Today is Saturday, so no check runs. The current positions were set at launch and reflect a Cycle ON setting. This weekend's drop in Bitcoin below 80,000 dollars is worth monitoring. Bitcoin's 200-day average sits roughly around that level, so Monday's check will be meaningful. No adjustment is made before then.WatchingMonday's cycle check is the first real test for Autopilot. We will look at whether Bitcoin has fallen below its 200-day average price and stayed there. If it has, Autopilot shifts from its current Cycle ON mix toward a more concentrated Bitcoin allocation and smaller positions. We will also check whether global money supply is still expanding, since both conditions together determine the portfolio phase.
D1
Note
HOLDDay 1 for Autopilot, a systematic crypto portfolio that shifts its allocation based on two macro signals checked every Monday: whether global money supply is expanding, and whether Bitcoin is above its long-term 200-day average price. Today being a Friday, the portfolio simply records its opening values and holds. Ethereum (ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency and a platform for decentralized applications) dipped slightly. Solana (SOL, a fast blockchain popular for DeFi applications and consumer crypto), Sui, Chainlink, and Render all gained. The custom launch allocation will be reviewed and cycle-adjusted on Monday, when the portfolio determines whether it should be in its growth phase (equal exposure across BTC, ETH, SOL), its cautious phase (heavier Bitcoin), or its defensive phase (mostly Bitcoin plus a stable coin buffer).WatchingMonday is the first cycle-check day. Whether Bitcoin is above or below its 200-day average price, combined with whether global money supply is currently expanding, will determine the correct allocation phase and trigger any needed rebalance. That decision will shape Autopilot for the coming week.
D0
Note
LAUNCH — CYCLE ONAutopilot launches today in Cycle On phase: global money supply is expanding and Bitcoin is trading above its 200-day average price — the two conditions this portfolio watches. When both are true, the portfolio runs its most aggressive allocation: half in Bitcoin as the reserve asset, a third in Ethereum as the network economy that runs on top of Bitcoin, and a fifth in Solana as the high-performance blockchain that tends to outperform both in strong markets. The rules are simple and will not change: only the macro cycle conditions decide the allocation. No discretion, no news reactions, no gut calls.WatchingWatching two things every Monday: whether global money supply is still growing compared to a year ago, and whether Bitcoin is still above its 200-day average price. If either flips, the portfolio shifts to Cycle Mixed and Solana gets cut to 5%. If both flip, Solana exits entirely and we move 20% to USDC while holding most of the book in Bitcoin.
Most days the log says no change. That is the point.