Daily log
28 entriesD26
Warn
HOLDCrypto had a clearly bad day. Bitcoin fell about five percent and the broad crypto index dropped nearly as much, dragged by an environment of expensive oil and firm interest rates that pushes investors away from risky bets. The one bright spot was Hyperliquid, the trading platform token that is this portfolio's biggest conviction, which actually edged up while everything else fell. This portfolio holds fixed targets in Bitcoin, Hyperliquid, a broad crypto basket, and a yield protocol, and it does not trade on news. The only thing that would force a full exit is the entire crypto market falling below its long term trend line, which has not happened. So we hold.WatchingWe are watching whether Hyperliquid's trading activity keeps growing, because that is the core bet. We are also watching the calendar: the weekly check on whether any holding has drifted too far from its target happens on Monday, and Hyperliquid's strong run has pushed its share up, so a rebalance may come into view then.Hyperliquid has grown into an outsized share of the portfolio after its long winning streak, a concentration risk to address at the next scheduled rebalance.
D25
Trade
REBALANCE TO TARGETToday is Monday, which means the portfolio checks for drift from its target weights. Hyperliquid (HYPE, a protocol for trading financial instruments directly on a blockchain without a central exchange) has been on a historic run and now represents a significantly larger share of the portfolio than its 30% target. This triggers the Monday rebalance rule: when a position has moved more than five percentage points from its target on a rebalancing day, the portfolio trims the winner and redistributes to the others. Bitcoin fell today as a record $2.97 billion left US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in a single session, as institutional investors rotated into AI stocks after Nvidia chip announcement. Pendle (PENDLE, a protocol that lets investors buy and sell future yield streams from on-chain assets) and the broad crypto index (CMC20, a basket of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market size) also declined. HYPE alone bucked the trend, hitting a new all-time high at $73.60 before today close. The rebalance sells some HYPE and buys back into BTC, CMC20, and PENDLE to restore the 30/30/30/10 split.WatchingWe are watching whether Hyperliquid daily trading volume keeps growing relative to centralized exchanges. If it consistently processes more volume than Binance or OKX in a given week, the thesis for owning it strengthens, and the target weight might be reviewed upward at a future rebalance. The near-term question is whether Monday rebalance was well-timed or early: HYPE may continue rising regardless.
D24
Note
HOLDCrypto trades every day including weekends, so we did update real prices. The overall crypto market was roughly flat today with a slightly cautious mood. The standout news helps us directly: ICE, the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange, is openly courting Hyperliquid (HYPE), the on-chain trading platform this portfolio bets on, and even called its market bigger than the Nasdaq. On top of that, US regulators just cleared the first regulated Bitcoin perpetual futures (a type of crypto bet with no expiry date), a sign the whole sector is being pulled into the mainstream. Our four holdings are Bitcoin (BTC), Hyperliquid (HYPE), a basket of the 20 biggest coins (CMC20), and Pendle (PENDLE, a platform for trading future yield). The fixed-weight plan is intact and weights have barely drifted, so we hold.WatchingWe are watching whether traditional finance giants like the NYSE actually build on or partner with Hyperliquid rather than just talk about it. Real adoption would strengthen the case for our largest conviction. We only rebalance back to target weights when one position drifts more than five percentage points off, and we are nowhere near that.
D23
Note
HOLDStrong day across the board for this crypto portfolio. Hyperliquid (HYPE, a decentralized exchange for perpetual trading contracts) surged over 7% after reports that ICE, the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange, is actively exploring a partnership with the platform. This is a powerful validation of the thesis behind owning HYPE: traditional finance is not trying to shut down decentralized trading, it is trying to join it. Bitcoin and the broad crypto index (CMC20, which tracks the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market value) both rose about 2%. Pendle (PENDLE, a protocol for trading future yield) dipped about 3.5%, continuing its underperformance. All four positions are within a few percentage points of their target weights after the rebalance last week, so no adjustment is needed.WatchingWe are watching whether Hyperliquid's drift from target continues to accelerate. Today it sits at 31.3% against a 30% target, well within the 5 percentage point buffer. But HYPE has been the strongest performer by far in this portfolio (up over 83% since purchase), and if it keeps outpacing the others, another rebalance will eventually become necessary. The broader crypto market sentiment is bullish, with regulators in the US and UK both making moves to bring crypto derivatives into the traditional financial framework.
D22
Trade
REBALANCE TO TARGETHyperliquid, held here as HYPE, had surged to 44 percent of this portfolio versus its 30 percent target. HYPE is a token that gives holders a share of trading fees generated on the Hyperliquid platform, a decentralized exchange built on its own blockchain. The news driving the price is genuinely significant: the CEO of ICE, the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange, said publicly he has met Hyperliquid multiple times and called decentralized trading a threat to traditional finance. Grayscale, a major crypto asset manager, is negotiating 115 million dollars to launch a dedicated HYPE fund. These are institutional validation signals. But the portfolio rule is clear: any position drifting more than 10 percentage points above its target triggers an immediate rebalance. At 14 points above target, the rule fires today. Gains are redistributed back into Bitcoin through BTC, the broad crypto index through CMC20, an equal-weighted basket of the top 20 cryptocurrencies, and Pendle Finance through PENDLE, a protocol for trading future yield from crypto savings products. This is not a bearish call on Hyperliquid. It is disciplined risk management.WatchingWe are watching whether Hyperliquid holds up technically during the SpaceX IPO on June 11. The NYSE CEO named that event explicitly as the test: if the platform can process the volume surge without issues, institutional credibility follows and HYPE price momentum continues. That would likely trigger another rebalance within weeks. We will track weight drift daily from today reset.
D21
Trade
REBALANCE TO TARGETHyperliquid (HYPE), a decentralized trading exchange that has been our strongest performer since launch, now accounts for more than 40% of the portfolio, well above its 30% target. The Convictions rule is clear: when any position drifts more than 10 percentage points above its target allocation, we rebalance immediately. This is not a view on HYPE's future prospects. It is risk management: concentration in any single asset, even a winning one, creates fragility that outweighs the upside of letting it run. We are trimming HYPE and redistributing back to the original 30/30/30/10 split across Bitcoin (BTC), HYPE, the CMC20 index, and Pendle (PENDLE). Bitcoin and the broader market have corrected this week, which makes the rebalance timing imperfect on paper but correct on principle.WatchingWe are watching whether HYPE's dominance in the decentralized derivatives market continues to grow. If Hyperliquid captures a larger share of on-chain trading volume over the next 30 days, the 30% allocation may feel conservative in hindsight. For now, the rules-based system is more important than the specific call. A second breach of the 10-point threshold in a single month would prompt a review of whether the target allocation itself should be adjusted upward.
D21
Note
HOLDCrypto brief: BEARISH sentiment. BTC trading below $73K with $733M in ETF outflows — IBIT alone saw $527M in redemptions, its largest single-day outflow on record. Institutional capital rotating from crypto toward gold, reflecting classic stagflation risk-off behavior. Fixed 30/30/30/10 allocation (BTC/HYPE/CMC20/PENDLE) unchanged. No 5pp drift breach. No bear market signal from global market cap vs 200-week MA — still above. Portfolio at +11.35% ($11,135) reflecting strong HYPE and CMC20 performance since launch, cushioning today's BTC drag. HOLD all four positions.WatchingGlobal crypto market cap vs its 200-week MA for bear market EXIT signal. BTC stabilization above $70K. HYPE DeFi perpetual volume for protocol thesis confirmation.
D20
Note
HOLDBitcoin (BTC) has dropped below $75,000 after news of renewed US-Iran military strikes, which triggered a risk-off sell-off across all crypto assets. The market sentiment reading is bearish, with more than half of traders expecting further downside. Hyperliquid (HYPE), a decentralized trading exchange, has pulled back from its recent high but remains deeply in profit since entry. The CMC20 index, which tracks the 20 largest cryptocurrencies by market cap and acts as our broad-market proxy, is down in line with the broader market. Pendle (PENDLE), a DeFi protocol that lets users trade future yields, is absorbing the sell-off without a thesis change. BTC ETF (exchange-traded fund) outflows over the past two weeks point to institutional pressure, but this has been a recurring pattern at every major correction and has not historically been the definitive signal for a longer bear market.WatchingWe are watching whether HYPE's portfolio weight drifts above the 10-percentage-point trigger above its 30% target, which would force an immediate rebalance. It is currently elevated and close to the threshold. We are also watching whether the broader crypto sentiment stabilizes: a recovery in BTC above $75,000 with sustained buying would indicate the Iran-strike shock has been absorbed and the bull case is intact.
D19
Trade
REBALANCE TO TARGET (HYPE 41.6% -> 30%)The crypto market pulled back slightly today, with Bitcoin (the largest cryptocurrency) down 1.4 percent and most tokens following it lower. The exception is Hyperliquid (HYPE, a decentralized exchange for perpetual futures trading), which rose nearly 2 percent against the trend. HYPE has gained over 62 percent since we first bought it, pushing its weight from the target of 30 percent up to 41.6 percent of the portfolio. The Convictions mandate has a simple rule: if any position drifts more than 10 percentage points from its target, rebalance immediately. HYPE is now 11.6 points above target. We are selling some HYPE and redistributing into Bitcoin (back to 30 percent), CMC20 (the top-20 crypto index, back to 30 percent), and Pendle (back to 10 percent). This is mechanical, not a judgment call. The thesis on HYPE is unchanged. We are simply enforcing the discipline that prevents any single bet from dominating the portfolio.WatchingWe are watching whether Hyperliquid's trading volume continues to grow. The thesis is that decentralized order books will capture meaningful share from centralized exchanges like Binance. So far the price action validates this strongly. After the rebalance, we still hold 30 percent HYPE, which is a very large bet by any standard. We are also monitoring the total crypto market capitalization relative to its 200-week average. If the total market drops below that line, the Convictions mandate says to exit everything to cash. We are not close to that trigger.
D18
Note
HOLDA strong green day for the crypto portfolio. Every position gained ground, led by Pendle (PENDLE, a protocol that lets people trade future yield on crypto assets) which jumped about 8.5% in the last 24 hours. Hyperliquid (HYPE, a decentralized exchange for trading perpetual futures, essentially bets on price direction without expiry) continued its extraordinary run, now up over 62% since we first bought it. HYPE hit an all-time high of $63 this week after two spot ETFs (exchange-traded funds that hold the actual token) launched in the United States. The broader crypto index (CMC20, an equal-weighted basket of the top 20 cryptocurrencies) gained about 1.2%. Bitcoin held just above its 50-day moving average despite over $2 billion in outflows from Bitcoin ETFs over the past two weeks. The overall market sentiment is neutral: potential peace in the Strait of Hormuz is a risk-on signal, but institutional money leaving Bitcoin ETFs is a caution signal. No drift above 5 percentage points from target weights yet, so no rebalance is needed.WatchingWe are watching whether the Hormuz deal finalizes on Monday. If oil drops sharply and stays low, that tends to free up capital for riskier assets like crypto. We are also watching Hyperliquid's weight in the portfolio, which has drifted above its 30% target due to its strong performance. If it crosses 35%, we would need to rebalance.
D17
Note
HOLDA strong day driven almost entirely by Hyperliquid (HYPE, a decentralized exchange for perpetual futures contracts), which surged nearly 12% in 24 hours as capital rotates into altcoins linked to decentralized trading infrastructure. The broad sentiment is bearish (Bitcoin under $78k, $2.26 billion in ETF outflows over two weeks, Mark Cuban selling his holdings), yet HYPE is moving independently on its own thesis. Bitcoin is flat at $76,362. The CMC20 index (a basket of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap) recovered 2.2%, and Pendle (a protocol for trading future yield) added 1.3%. No drift exceeds the 5 percentage point threshold today, but HYPE is approaching it fast.WatchingWhether Hyperliquid pushes its portfolio weight above the concentration trigger. HYPE has gained roughly 60% since we bought it, meaning it now represents closer to 38% of the portfolio instead of its 30% target. Monday we will check the exact drift and execute a rebalance if needed to bring weights back to target.
D16
Trade
REBALANCE TO TARGETCrypto markets ran today with a broadly negative tone, but Hyperliquid (HYPE, a token powering a decentralized trading exchange: a platform where people trade crypto without a company in the middle) kept climbing relative to the rest of the portfolio and crossed the threshold where waiting until Monday no longer made sense. With HYPE at nearly 39 percent of the portfolio against a 30 percent target, and approaching the 10-point emergency threshold, we executed the rebalance today. We sold a portion of HYPE and used the proceeds to top up Bitcoin (BTC), the broad crypto index (CMC20, an equal-weighted basket of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market size), and Pendle Finance (PENDLE, a protocol for trading future yield streams) back to their target weights. The thesis for all four positions is unchanged. The broader crypto backdrop remains under pressure from four consecutive days of institutional outflows from Bitcoin funds and a high-profile investor publicly exiting Bitcoin.WatchingWe are watching whether Hyperliquid keeps outpacing the rest of the portfolio. The rebalance locks in part of its outsized gain and restores balance. If HYPE continues to diverge strongly, the next drift check on Monday will catch it. The 5-point drift threshold means any position moving more than 5 percentage points from its target triggers a rebalance flag.
D15
Warn
HOLDThe crypto market overall was roughly flat today, with Bitcoin stuck in a sideways range while a potential US-Iran peace agreement kept risk sentiment cautious but not panicked. Hyperliquid (HYPE, a decentralized trading platform that lets crypto users trade perpetual futures contracts without going through a centralized exchange) has had a remarkable week, with institutional funds pouring money into its token via dedicated investment funds called ETFs. That surge has pushed HYPE's share of this portfolio to roughly 38% of total value, nearly 8 percentage points above its 30% target weight. The mandate calls for a rebalance when any position drifts more than 5 percentage points from its target, with execution deferred to Monday unless the drift exceeds 10 percentage points immediately.WatchingWhether Hyperliquid's daily trading volumes and fee revenue keep growing over the next few days to justify the new higher price. Strong on-chain performance would confirm a genuine re-rating; a reversal in those metrics would suggest the move was speculation and the Monday rebalance becomes even more important.HYPE has drifted to approximately 38% of portfolio value, 8 percentage points above its 30% target. Drift flag triggered. Rebalance execution deferred to Monday per mandate rules.
D14
Warn
HOLDAn extraordinary day for Jeremy's crypto conviction portfolio, driven almost entirely by Hyperliquid (HYPE), a decentralized exchange that lets traders make leveraged bets on crypto prices without a middleman. HYPE surged 17 percent in a single day, pushing close to its all-time high. The catalyst was a combination of factors: HYPE's market value has now surpassed Solana (a competing blockchain), two new ETFs (investment funds that trade on traditional stock exchanges) are seeing heavy trading activity, and the platform is processing over $170 billion in trading volume per month. Bitcoin dipped slightly, and the broad crypto index (CMC20, a basket of the 20 largest cryptocurrencies) was essentially flat. The fixed-weight thesis is intact, but HYPE's surge has pushed its actual weight in the portfolio to 38.2 percent, more than 8 percentage points above the 30 percent target.WatchingHYPE drift is at 8.2 percentage points above target. The rebalancing rules say we flag anything above 5 points but only execute on Mondays, unless the drift exceeds 10 points (which would trigger an immediate rebalance). If HYPE keeps climbing, we may need to trim on Monday. If it pulls back, the drift may self-correct.HYPE allocation drift at 38.2% vs 30% target (+8.2pp). Rebalance review scheduled for Monday May 26.
D13
Note
HOLDToday was the best single day in the Convictions portfolio short history, with a 4.14 percent portfolio gain driven almost entirely by Hyperliquid (HYPE), the token that runs a decentralized perpetuals exchange (an on-chain platform where people trade price-tracking contracts without a centralized company in the middle). HYPE gained over 8 percent after Bitwise, a crypto investment firm, described it as a next-generation token capable of addressing a very large global market. Pendle Finance (PENDLE, a protocol that lets users trade the future income from staked crypto assets, similar to how bond markets separate interest payments from principal) also surged over 8 percent. Bitcoin held steady near 77k dollars. Drift check: HYPE has risen to about 34.6 percent of the portfolio versus its 30 percent target, a 4.6 percentage point drift. The rebalance threshold is 5 percentage points. We are just below it. No rebalance today.WatchingWe are watching whether HYPE weight keeps climbing above the 5 percentage point drift limit. If it reaches 35 percent of the portfolio, a rebalance back to target weights would be triggered on the following Monday. We are also watching the overall crypto market capitalization relative to its long-run trend, which is the only signal that would trigger a full exit to stablecoins.
D12
Note
HOLDCrypto bounced back today driven by a strong session from Hyperliquid (HYPE), the on-chain perpetuals exchange, which gained nearly 5 percent. The catalyst appears to be the announcement that SpaceX shares have been made tradeable on Hyperliquid before the company's planned stock market listing -- a signal that decentralized exchanges are beginning to offer assets that traditional brokers cannot. This is exactly the platform's thesis: if it can list pre-IPO stocks alongside crypto tokens, it becomes a fundamentally different kind of exchange. Bitcoin was essentially flat, the broader crypto index slipped slightly, and Pendle (a protocol that lets users trade future yields on crypto assets) recovered modestly. The portfolio crossed back into positive territory for the first time this week.WatchingWe are watching whether Hyperliquid keeps expanding the range of assets it offers -- specifically whether the SpaceX listing attracts meaningful trading volume. Growing volume means growing fee revenue, which strengthens the case for holding HYPE. We are also monitoring the total crypto market for any signal that its overall value is weakening significantly, which would trigger a move to USDC (a digital dollar that holds its value).
D11
Note
HOLDA rare positive day for Convictions while the broader crypto market bled. The portfolio rose positive 0.17% even as Bitcoin (BTC) dropped nearly 2%, thanks entirely to Hyperliquid (HYPE, a decentralized exchange for trading crypto derivatives). HYPE surged over 6% after Coinbase (one of the largest crypto exchanges) announced it would become the official deployer of USDC (a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar) on Hyperliquid's chain. This replaces Hyperliquid's own stablecoin that never gained traction and brings billions of dollars in potential liquidity. On the risk side, traditional exchanges (ICE and CME) are asking the US commodities regulator (CFTC) to clamp down on Hyperliquid's anonymous trading. The broader market sold off after the president's military threats against Iran pushed investors away from risky assets. Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds that let traditional investors buy Bitcoin through their brokerage) saw 1 billion dollars in outflows this week. Pendle (PENDLE, a protocol that lets people trade future yields on crypto assets) is now down over 10% from entry, the weakest position.WatchingWe are watching the CFTC's response to the ICE/CME petition against Hyperliquid. If regulators move to restrict decentralized derivatives trading in the US, HYPE could give back this week's gains and more. We are also watching Monday's Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) 8-K filing, which will reveal the size of their latest Bitcoin purchase. A large buy from the biggest corporate Bitcoin holder could stabilize sentiment in a fearful market.
D10
Note
HOLDA good session for this portfolio. Hyperliquid (HYPE -- a decentralized exchange where traders buy and sell crypto contracts without a company acting as the middleman) surged about 5.7 percent, driven by two institutional milestones. Bitwise Asset Management launched the first US exchange-traded fund (ETF -- a fund you buy on a stock exchange) for HYPE with native staking built in, meaning the fund actually passes through the yield earned from locking up tokens to shareholders, not just the price gain. Coinbase also took over as the official dollar-stablecoin deployer on the Hyperliquid network. These are exactly the kind of developments the thesis is built on: decentralized trading infrastructure being validated by traditional finance. Bitcoin (BTC) was essentially flat, and the broad crypto index (CMC20 -- an equal-weight basket of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market size) edged up slightly. HYPE's gain brought its cumulative return back close to breakeven after a difficult stretch. All four positions remain within one percentage point of their target weights, so no rebalance was triggered.WatchingWe are watching whether Hyperliquid's daily trading volume keeps growing toward the levels of the largest centralized exchanges. Sustained volume growth would strengthen the core thesis and prompt a review of the target weight upward. On the other side, a sustained break in the total cryptocurrency market capitalization below its long-term average would trigger a full exit to USDC, a dollar-backed stablecoin.
D9
Note
HOLDCrypto markets fell broadly today and Convictions took a meaningful hit. Hyperliquid (HYPE, a token tied to a decentralized trading platform that operates like a stock exchange but without any company running it) and Pendle Finance (PENDLE, a protocol that lets investors separate and trade future interest payments on their savings) were the hardest hit, each falling sharply as the risk-off mood spread from traditional markets into crypto. Bitcoin and the broad crypto index held up comparatively better but still fell. One genuinely encouraging development came through: Bitwise, a major US investment firm, launched the first US exchange-traded fund specifically for Hyperliquid with built-in staking rewards. This is the kind of institutional recognition that validates the long-term thesis for holding HYPE. Strong down days do not break that thesis. All positions remain within their target allocation bands, so no rebalance is triggered.WatchingWe are watching whether Hyperliquid's real-world usage continues to grow. The platform's daily trading volume, how much money moves through it per day, is the healthiest signal of whether the thesis is working, independent of the token price. We are also watching the overall crypto market cap relative to its long-term average: if the entire market breaks down structurally and falls below that average, we would move everything to cash.
D8
Note
HOLDConvictions holds four cryptocurrency positions in fixed proportions and does not react to short-term market moves. Today the book had a split result: Bitcoin and CMC20, a fund tracking the 20 largest cryptocurrencies by market cap, fell as the broader market sold off, while Hyperliquid (HYPE, a decentralized crypto exchange run by an algorithm rather than a company) and Pendle (PENDLE, a protocol for trading future crypto yields) both rose. The standout news: Bitwise launched the first Hyperliquid ETF on the New York Stock Exchange with staking rewards built in. Kevin Warsh, who personally holds Solana and other crypto assets, was confirmed as the new Federal Reserve chair. Both developments are institutional validation of the crypto space. The bear market exit signal has not fired. Target weights remain within tolerance.WatchingWe are watching whether Hyperliquid's daily trading volume keeps growing relative to centralized exchanges. The Bitwise ETF launch brings institutional capital into HYPE through a regulated product. If protocol volume grows consistently over the next month, it strengthens the case for the 30% allocation and would prompt a review at the next Monday cycle check.
D7
Note
HOLDA strong day, mostly from one big catalyst: the investment firm 21Shares launched the first US exchange-listed fund (called an ETF) tracking Hyperliquid's token (HYPE) directly at the Nasdaq stock exchange. An ETF is a product you can buy through any regular brokerage account, which means fund managers and financial advisors who previously could not buy HYPE directly can now access it through a regulated product. The token jumped over 6% on the news. Bitcoin held near $80,000, the broad crypto index (CMC20) was flat, and Pendle (a protocol that lets users trade on-chain yield) dipped slightly. All positions remain within their target weights, so no rebalancing is needed.WatchingWe are watching whether the Hyperliquid ETF launch brings sustained institutional buying over the coming weeks. An ETF launch only matters if capital actually flows in. If assets under management in the new fund stay below $100 million, the impact is noise. If they cross $1 billion, the demand effect is structural and long-lasting. We are also watching the overall crypto market cap versus its 200-week average price, which is the signal that would trigger a full exit to dollar-pegged stablecoins.
D6
Note
HOLDA difficult day for crypto across the board. Bitcoin (the world's largest digital currency by market value) fell about 1.3 percent, and Hyperliquid (HYPE, a decentralized trading platform where users trade crypto futures without a central company in the middle) dropped about 3.3 percent. The portfolio dipped below its starting value for the first time. The positive news: 21Shares launched the first US exchange-traded fund (an ETF, a fund you buy like a stock on any regular brokerage) tracking HYPE at the NASDAQ. This puts Hyperliquid in front of investors who previously could not easily access the token. Drift check: all positions remain within three percentage points of their targets, so no rebalance needed yet (the threshold is five points).WatchingWe are watching whether the HYPE ETF attracts consistent inflows in its first weeks of trading. Growing daily volume and a tight price difference between the ETF and the underlying token would signal genuine institutional demand. That would strengthen the Hyperliquid thesis and eventually prompt a review of whether to increase its 30 percent target weight.
D5
Note
HOLDConvictions (a fixed-weight portfolio holding four crypto assets: Bitcoin at 30%, Hyperliquid at 30%, a broad crypto index at 30%, and Pendle Finance at 10%) had a modestly positive day at +0.23%, even as global stock markets fell. The big story inside the portfolio was Pendle Finance (PENDLE, a protocol that turns future yield streams into tradeable tokens), which surged roughly 8% for the day, boosting the portfolio despite losses across the other three positions. Bitcoin (BTC, the world's largest and oldest cryptocurrency) showed notable resilience, barely moving while equities sold off. Experienced market participants read this kind of hold as a sign of underlying buyer support. Hyperliquid (HYPE, an on-chain exchange for leveraged trading) continued its softer patch, now down roughly 3.8% from launch, which is not unusual for a high-beta asset. All four positions remain within five percentage points of their target weights, so no rebalancing was triggered. The fixed-weight thesis holds.WatchingWe are watching whether Hyperliquid keeps growing its daily trading volume (the total amount of money flowing through its on-chain exchange each day). If that volume continues to grow and approaches the scale of large centralized exchanges like Binance, the thesis for holding it at 30% of the portfolio strengthens. If volume growth stalls while competitors gain, we would need to revisit the weight. We are also watching Bitcoin's behavior around the $80,000 level: the crypto brief described the current zone as a key test of market resilience, and a sustained hold here would signal a healthy base for the next move.
D4
Note
HOLDCrypto markets are open but quiet on Sunday. The big news is that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world with over 818,000 bitcoins) revealed it plans to buy 10 to 20 bitcoins for every one it sells, using money raised through stock and bond issuance. JPMorgan estimates Strategy could buy $30 billion of Bitcoin this year alone. Meanwhile, Switzerland's constitutional initiative to force its central bank to hold Bitcoin failed to gather enough signatures. This contrast between accelerating corporate adoption and stalled sovereign adoption does not change our fixed-weight approach. All four positions are performing well, with Pendle (PENDLE, a protocol that lets people trade future yields on crypto assets) leading at nearly 6% gain. No drift beyond 5 percentage points from targets.WatchingWhether Strategy announces a new large purchase this week, which historically moves Bitcoin's price in the short term. Also watching global crypto market capitalization relative to its 200-week moving average, which is the portfolio's only exit trigger.
D3
Note
HOLDCrypto markets never close, and today brought difficult news for this portfolio. Bitcoin (BTC, the original and largest cryptocurrency by value) fell back below 80,000 US dollars after the United States carried out additional military strikes in Iran. When geopolitical tensions spike, investors who were speculating with borrowed money on crypto futures face automatic position closures. Today more than 300 million dollars of those positions were liquidated in a cascade. This is painful short-term noise in a market that trades around the clock. For Convictions, the mandate is straightforward: hold Bitcoin, Hyperliquid (HYPE, a decentralized platform where traders can buy and sell crypto with leverage), the top-20 crypto index (CMC20, which holds shares in the twenty largest cryptocurrencies weighted by size), and Pendle Finance (PENDLE, a protocol that lets people buy and sell the future yield of crypto assets). None of these positions have broken their core thesis. The bear market exit rule, which would move everything to cash if the total value of all crypto assets falls below its two-year average, has not been triggered.WatchingWe are watching whether Bitcoin stabilizes and recovers above 80,000 dollars in the coming days. A sustained break below that level combined with a broader decline in the total crypto market toward its two-year average would be the signal to move everything to safety. We are not at that threshold yet.
D2
Note
HOLDThe crypto market entered the weekend under pressure. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, dropped below 80,000 dollars following new US military strikes in Iran, which pushed investors out of risk assets globally. Convictions holds a fixed set of positions: Bitcoin, Hyperliquid (a decentralized platform where traders exchange crypto contracts without a traditional exchange), the CMC20 index (a basket tracking the twenty largest cryptocurrencies), and Pendle (a protocol for trading future income from crypto holdings). None of this short-term noise changes the thesis. The only exit condition for Convictions is a sustained collapse in the total size of the crypto market below its long-term average. That has not happened.WatchingWe are watching the overall crypto market through a long lens. Short-term drops driven by geopolitics are not Convictions' trigger. The question we return to each week is whether the crypto economy as a whole is growing over time. As long as that remains true, we hold.
D1
Note
HOLDDay 1 for Convictions, a portfolio built around four direct crypto convictions: Bitcoin (BTC, the original and largest cryptocurrency), Hyperliquid (HYPE, a platform where traders buy and sell crypto contracts directly on a blockchain without a middleman), a broad basket of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market value (CMC20), and Pendle Finance (PENDLE, a protocol that lets people buy and sell the future yield from crypto investments). On its first day, PENDLE was the clear standout, gaining nearly ten percent on growing enthusiasm for yield tokenization. HYPE also climbed as decentralized trading volumes remain strong. Bitcoin was flat and the broad CMC20 basket was essentially unchanged. Meanwhile, three major traditional finance institutions made concrete crypto moves today: JPMorgan analysts predict a large corporate Bitcoin buyer could absorb 30 billion dollars of supply this year, BNY Mellon launched crypto custody services in Abu Dhabi, and the DTCC (the infrastructure behind US stock market settlement) announced it is exploring blockchain technology for processing corporate dividends. The overall crypto mood is bullish.WatchingWe are watching whether Hyperliquid keeps growing its share of daily crypto trading volume relative to centralized exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. If on-chain trading volume continues to rise, the thesis behind HYPE strengthens, and we would review whether to increase its target weight. We also track the total crypto market size against its long-term trend: if it falls below that trend line, the entire portfolio moves to a stable coin (USDC) to protect capital.
D0
Note
LAUNCHConvictions launches today as Jeremy's direct on-chain bet on the crypto ecosystem. The portfolio holds four assets with fixed target weights: Bitcoin as the bedrock reserve asset, Hyperliquid as a bet on the future of decentralized trading, a broad top-20 crypto index for ecosystem exposure without having to pick winners, and Pendle Finance as a smaller bet on yield tokenization growing into a real financial primitive. The thesis on each is held regardless of short-term price moves — this portfolio does not respond to macro signals or market sentiment. The only thing that would trigger a full exit is a catastrophic bear market signal: the total crypto market cap dropping below its two-year moving average.WatchingWatching whether Hyperliquid keeps gaining market share in the perpetuals market — if its daily trading volume approaches that of major centralized exchanges, the thesis is strengthening. Also monitoring the total crypto market cap trend; if it breaks below its two-year moving average, the bear market exit signal fires.
Most days the log says no change. That is the point.