Daily log
34 entriesD33
Note
HOLDThis is the swing for the fences portfolio, concentrated in fast growing areas like US technology and the broad tech sector. Technology held firm even as the wider market paused, with chipmaker news keeping the sector warm, and that carried the book to another small gain and the best total return of the four stock portfolios. The crypto slot was already swapped out for safe short term government bills weeks ago when that signal flipped, so there is nothing forcing a change today. The thesis, that the artificial intelligence spending boom keeps lifting tech, is intact.WatchingWe are watching whether any holding starts badly trailing its own sector for weeks, which is what would trigger a swap. Nothing is close to that today.
D32
Note
HOLDPerformance had a good day relative to the rest of the portfolio lineup, ending just barely positive. The technology sector fund (XLK) rose over one percent as Nvidia new chip announcement lifted the AI hardware theme. Emerging market stocks (EEM, a fund holding companies in developing countries like Brazil, India, and Taiwan) also rose, helped by a weaker dollar. The drag came from small US companies (IWM, a fund holding smaller American businesses) and the cash-like position in short-term Treasury bills (SGOV), both of which pulled back. Today also triggers the monthly check: Performance allocation has not drifted meaningfully from its targets, so no rebalance is needed. The thesis, which bets on the AI capital spending cycle continuing, was directly confirmed by Nvidia announcement today.WatchingWe are watching the technology sector for signs that the current AI infrastructure spending wave is approaching a peak. The portfolio holds no direct Nvidia shares, but the technology sector fund (XLK) and the Nasdaq fund (QQQ) are both heavily influenced by Nvidia direction. A sustained reversal there would be the main signal to review.
D31
Note
HOLDThis is the go-for-growth portfolio, built to chase the highest returns and accept bigger ups and downs in exchange. It leans into US technology and growth: the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ, the 100 largest non-financial companies on the tech-heavy Nasdaq exchange), the broad US market (SPY), small companies (IWM), the tech sector (XLK), emerging markets (EEM), and a small cash buffer in Treasury bills (SGOV). Markets were closed over the weekend, so values carry forward. It is the best performer so far, which is the reward for taking more risk, and nothing this weekend changed the growth story, so we hold.WatchingWe are watching whether any single holding starts badly lagging its own sector, which would be our cue that its specific story is broken. For the crypto slot we watch two things together: whether the amount of money circulating in the world is still expanding, and whether Bitcoin stays above its long-term trend line. If both turn down, that slot comes off.
D30
Note
HOLDMarkets are closed for the weekend. This portfolio is the strongest performer among the four macro books, driven by its heavy allocation to technology stocks. The Nasdaq 100 (held as QQQ) and the technology sector fund (XLK) are the main engines, both benefiting from the ongoing boom in artificial intelligence spending. The portfolio rotated out of a Bitcoin fund (IBIT) into short-term Treasury bills (SGOV) on May 19 because Bitcoin had fallen below its 200-day moving average, a key signal in this portfolio's rulebook. That decision has been validated so far, as Bitcoin remains below that threshold.WatchingWe are watching whether Bitcoin climbs back above its 200-day moving average. If it does and holds there for several days, this portfolio's rules would flag a potential re-entry into a Bitcoin position funded by selling the Treasury bill allocation. The technology stocks' momentum remains strong, but the week ahead includes potential market-moving events including the SpaceX IPO expected June 4.
D29
Note
HOLDTechnology had a strong day. Dell Technologies surged more than 30 percent after reporting strong demand for AI servers, lifting XLK, a fund focused on US technology companies. Anthropic, the company that builds the Claude AI model, raised 65 billion dollars at a valuation near one trillion dollars, confirming how much money is flowing into artificial intelligence infrastructure. The Nasdaq 100 fund QQQ, which tracks the 100 largest non-financial US companies and is heavily weighted toward tech, also advanced. Small-cap stocks through IWM dipped slightly as lower oil prices weighed on energy-exposed smaller companies. XLK is now the portfolio strongest performer at over 11 percent gain since launch. No exit signals have fired.WatchingWe are watching whether the AI investment wave continues translating into real earnings growth for the companies we hold. The thesis is that firms building AI infrastructure will deliver outsized returns over the next 12 to 18 months. If major tech companies start cutting their AI spending or reporting disappointing returns from it, that would be the signal to reduce our XLK and QQQ exposure. Today the opposite is happening.
D28
Note
HOLDNews read: US equities leading globally, small caps surging. IWM +9.20% — strongest performer in the portfolio. QQQ +6.56%, SPY +3.64%, XLK +3.12% all contributing. EEM marginally negative (-0.31%) on EM caution. Positioning: growth-oriented 6-asset allocation firing on most cylinders. Portfolio +4.53% since launch, best Sharpe ratio of the macro suite at 3.95. Reasoning today: no rebalance trigger breached, momentum intact, risk/reward favourable. Hold all six positions.WatchingIWM momentum reversal signal. QQQ earnings season volatility. EEM for EM recovery confirmation.
D27
Note
HOLDUS equities are giving back a small amount of yesterday's gains, with technology and small caps modestly lower. Emerging market equities (EEM, a fund tracking stocks in developing economies) remain flat, showing no directional conviction in either direction. The Performance portfolio is in a strong position: its highest-conviction bets are working, with QQQ and IWM (small-cap US stocks) both above their entry prices, while the defensive SGOV position cushions the book. No position is close to underperforming its sector ETF benchmark by the 10-point threshold that would trigger a rotation review.WatchingWe are watching whether global money supply continues to expand. The Performance mandate allows adding cryptocurrency exposure when global M2 (the measure of total money in circulation) is growing and Bitcoin is above its 200-day moving average (the average price over the past 200 trading days). Both conditions are currently borderline, so we are watching closely for a clear signal before considering a crypto addition to the book.
D26
Note
HOLDUS markets reopened after the holiday to find equities broadly positive, with technology (QQQ, a fund that tracks the 100 largest tech-heavy companies on the Nasdaq) and small-cap US stocks (IWM, a fund that tracks smaller US companies) both performing well. The momentum in tech and small caps is consistent with the performance thesis: when growth expectations are healthy, the riskier parts of the equity market outperform. The geopolitical noise from the US-Iran situation is real, but equity investors are treating it as a known risk rather than a new shock, which means prices have largely adjusted. Emerging markets (EEM) remain neutral, and the SGOV position is providing its usual steady income.WatchingWe are watching whether the current rally in tech and small-cap stocks is driven by real earnings improvement or by multiple expansion. If earnings estimates start coming down, the high-growth parts of the portfolio would be most exposed. The specific signal would be if QQQ starts underperforming the broader S&P 500 (SPY) on a 30-day rolling basis by more than 10 percentage points.
D25
Note
HOLDThe growth-focused portfolio continues to lead the macro books, driven by the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ, the 100 largest non-financial companies on the Nasdaq, heavily weighted toward tech) and small-cap stocks (IWM, a fund tracking 2,000 smaller American companies). Small caps have been the standout performer at +7.4% since inception. The 10% cash position (SGOV) was placed there when Bitcoin fell below its 200-day moving average (a trend line that averages the price over the last 200 trading days, used as a simple signal for whether the long-term trend is up or down). That crypto exit trigger has not reversed. Markets closed today.WatchingWe are watching whether the positive momentum from last week (Dow +2.1%, S&P +0.9%) carries into a short trading week. The semiconductor sector, which this portfolio has indirect exposure to through QQQ and XLK, remains in what analysts describe as bubble territory by academic standards. Any earnings miss or guidance cut from a major chip company could trigger a sharp rotation.
D24
Note
HOLDThe all-growth portfolio leads the macro books. Semiconductors and tech drove gains this week, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index on an 18-day winning streak. Small caps (IWM, a fund tracking 2000 smaller US companies) are the standout at +7.4% since launch. The crypto slot was exited earlier when Bitcoin fell below its 200-day moving average (a trend line showing its average price over the past 200 days), and that freed capital sits in T-bills. Markets are rallying and we are positioned to capture it.WatchingWhether Bitcoin reclaims its 200-day moving average. If it does and global money supply is still expanding, we would re-enter a crypto position at 10-15% of the portfolio. That signal has not fired yet.
D23
Note
HOLDMarkets are closed for the weekend. Performance is the most aggressive book, built around US technology and growth stocks. It has been strong since launch: the Nasdaq-100 index (QQQ, a fund of the 100 largest non-financial US companies, dominated by Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia) is up 4.5 percent since launch, driven by continued spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure. Small-cap US companies (IWM, a fund of smaller American businesses) have been the surprise winner at plus 7.4 percent, reflecting bets that manufacturing is returning to the United States. The 10 percent parked in short-term Treasury bills (SGOV) is cash from when Bitcoin fell below its 200-day average price earlier this month, triggering the portfolio rule to exit crypto and wait.WatchingWe are watching whether Bitcoin gets back above its 200-day average price, which is the average daily closing price over the past 200 days (currently around 84,000 dollars). If it does, and if global money supply is also expanding, we reinvest the T-bill position into Bitcoin. Right now Bitcoin is at 75,219 dollars, still below that level.
D22
Note
HOLDTechnology stocks recovered ground today and the small company stocks in this portfolio also gained. The big news was Nvidia, the company that makes the chips powering the artificial intelligence boom, posting extraordinary quarterly results but seeing its stock fall anyway because market expectations had grown even larger than the record numbers. That tells us something useful about the current environment: excitement about AI is already priced deeply into tech stocks, which is why this portfolio holds broad technology exposure rather than betting on any single name. The short-term government bills position (SGOV, a fund holding 3-month US Treasury bills acting as a cash substitute) continues earning a modest daily return while we wait for the right conditions to redeploy into higher-risk assets.WatchingWhether the two conditions that would bring crypto back into this portfolio both flip positive at the same time: Bitcoin recovering above its 200-day moving average (an indicator that averages closing prices over the past 200 trading days) and global money supply clearly expanding. Either condition alone is not enough to act.
D21
Note
HOLDThe high-growth portfolio took a modest hit as Nvidia's post-earnings decline dragged the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ, a fund concentrated in the largest technology companies) down about 0.8 percent. The technology sector fund (XLK) also fell. Small-cap stocks (IWM, a fund tracking 2,000 smaller American companies) were the one bright spot, essentially flat on the day, showing that the selling pressure was concentrated in large tech names. The portfolio exited its bitcoin position earlier this month when the price dropped below its 200-day average (a common trend-following signal), and that cash position in Treasury bills is now quietly earning a small positive return while we wait for a re-entry signal.WatchingWe are watching whether Bitcoin can reclaim its 200-day moving average. If it does and global money supply (the total amount of money circulating in the economy) is still expanding, the mandate calls for re-entering a bitcoin position at up to 15 percent of the portfolio. That signal has not fired yet.
D20
Note
HOLDThe growth side of the market had a strong day. The Nasdaq-100 fund (QQQ, which tracks the 100 largest non-financial companies on the Nasdaq exchange, heavy in technology), small company stocks (IWM), and the technology sector fund (XLK) all rose sharply. Emerging market stocks (EEM, a fund tracking developing-country companies in places like China, Taiwan, and India) also recovered meaningfully. Nvidia, the chip company at the center of the artificial intelligence hardware boom, reports earnings tonight after markets close. Analysts expect roughly 60 percent revenue growth year over year. If earnings disappoint, technology stocks could give back today gains. If they beat expectations, QQQ and XLK could push further ahead. The cash position parked in T-bills at roughly 10 percent of the portfolio keeps overall volatility in check while we wait for the next entry signal.WatchingWe are watching Nvidia earnings tonight as a near-term catalyst for technology stocks. We are also watching the global money supply signal and whether Bitcoin climbs back above its 200-day average (calculated by averaging the past 200 daily prices), the two conditions that would need to turn positive before a return to crypto exposure makes sense for this portfolio.
D19
Note
HOLDGrowth stocks had a rough day as rising interest rates made investors nervous about companies whose value depends heavily on future earnings -- typically technology and small-cap companies. The Nasdaq-100 (a fund tracking the 100 largest tech companies on the Nasdaq exchange, including Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft) fell 1.35 percent, small-cap stocks (smaller US companies tracked by IWM, the Russell 2000 fund) fell 1.67 percent, and emerging market stocks fell 2.1 percent. The portfolio erased most of last week's gains in a single session, which is the normal cost of a high-conviction, concentrated growth strategy. The core thesis -- that AI investment spending and US domestic re-shoring are durable multi-year trends -- has not changed.WatchingWe are watching whether Bitcoin (BTC, the largest cryptocurrency by value) moves back above its 200-day average price, which would be a signal that the broader crypto market is recovering and warrant rotating the T-bill position back into crypto exposure. We are also monitoring whether emerging market stocks keep underperforming -- if they drag the portfolio for 30 consecutive days, we would revisit that allocation.
D18
Note
HOLDMarkets are closed. Performance leads all portfolios at positive 2.82%, driven by concentrated bets on US growth stocks: Nasdaq-100 (QQQ, the top 100 tech-heavy companies) is up positive 4.69% and small-cap stocks (IWM, the Russell 2000 index of smaller US companies) are up positive 5.90%. The emerging markets position (EEM) is the drag at negative 2.89%. Friday's selloff hit tech hard (Nasdaq fell 1.5%), but the portfolio's growth-heavy tilt has been rewarded over the full period. The 10.1% parked in Treasury bills (SGOV) is the cash freed up when we exited the crypto position earlier this month after Bitcoin dropped below its 200-day moving average (a technical signal that suggests the trend has turned negative).WatchingNvidia reports earnings this week. As the largest company in the Nasdaq-100 and a core driver of the AI investment cycle, its results could move the entire tech sector. If Nvidia beats expectations, QQQ likely rallies and extends Performance's lead. If it disappoints, the concentrated tech bet could give back gains quickly. We are also watching whether rate-hike fears (now priced at 45% probability) cool down after the Fed minutes release, because rising rates are the biggest headwind for growth stocks.
D17
Note
HOLDThe Performance portfolio holds growth and technology funds alongside a parking position in short-term US Treasury bills, where the crypto allocation (originally up to 15 percent in Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency) is sitting after Bitcoin fell below its 200-day moving average -- the average price over the last 200 trading days, used as a long-term trend filter -- and triggered the mandate's exit rule. Strong AI-linked earnings this week continued to support the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ -- a fund that holds the hundred largest US technology and growth companies) and the technology sector fund. No new signals fired this weekend.WatchingWe are watching whether Bitcoin climbs back above its 200-day moving average while global money supply is also expanding. If both conditions hold at the same time, the mandate calls for putting up to 15 percent back into a Bitcoin fund, funded from the current Treasury bill position.
D16
Warn
HOLD — WARNING: Bitcoin below 200-day average. EXIT IBIT at Monday open.Friday was a rough day for Performance. Technology stocks fell sharply, and Bitcoin (held here via IBIT, a fund that tracks Bitcoin's price on a regular stock exchange) dropped along with everything else. More significantly, Bitcoin this weekend is trading below a level this portfolio watches closely, called the 200-day moving average. A moving average is simply the average price over the past 200 days. When the current price falls below that average, it signals that recent momentum has shifted. The mandate is clear: if Bitcoin falls below its 200-day average, exit the entire position. That signal has now fired. Because this is a weekend and IBIT trades on a regular stock exchange that is closed, the sale cannot happen today. Monday is the action day.WatchingWe are watching Bitcoin's price between now and Monday morning. If it recovers convincingly above $81,752 before markets open, that would prompt a reassessment. If it stays below, we sell the full IBIT position at Monday's open and hold the proceeds in SGOV (short-term T-bills earning near current rates) until both conditions for re-entry are met: Bitcoin above its 200-day average, and global money supply growing again.Bitcoin ($78,093) fell below its 200-day moving average ($81,752). Per mandate, this triggers a full EXIT of IBIT (10% of portfolio). Cannot execute on a weekend. Action: sell IBIT at Monday market open.
D15
Note
HOLDIt was a difficult Friday for Performance. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), the broader market, and Bitcoin's listed ETF proxy (IBIT) all retreated as investors reduced risk heading into the weekend. Rising oil prices and sticky inflation fears were the macro driver. Emerging markets (EEM) took the biggest hit on China-Taiwan uncertainty. The portfolio has given back some of its strong early gains but still leads every other portfolio in the experiment by a wide margin. The weekly momentum check shows no position has underperformed its benchmark ETF by more than 10% on a rolling 30-day basis, so no rotation trigger has fired.WatchingWe are watching whether the technology sector (XLK, a fund focused on US tech companies) can regain its leadership relative to the broader Nasdaq. Tech was the weakest large-cap growth position today. If that underperformance persists for a rolling month, we would consider swapping XLK for a broader growth exposure.
D14
Note
HOLDA strong day for the technology positions. The technology sector fund (XLK) rose over 1% after Cisco surged on earnings, adding to this portfolio's already strong lead. The Nasdaq-100 (QQQ, a fund tracking the 100 largest technology companies) and the broad market both gained. The thesis here, concentrated exposure to AI and technology infrastructure, continues to play out. The cash position in short-term government bills (SGOV) is parked from the earlier Bitcoin exit and stays there until Bitcoin shows renewed strength.WatchingWe are watching two things. First, whether Bitcoin (BTC) recovers above its 200-day moving average price, which would signal that the long-term crypto uptrend is back on track and warrant a re-entry into IBIT (the BlackRock Bitcoin fund). Second, whether the small-cap Russell 2000 position (IWM, a fund tracking smaller US companies) continues to lag the rest of the portfolio, which could eventually trigger a rotation into a stronger position.
D13
Note
HOLDAn essentially flat day masking two diverging stories. The emerging market fund (EEM, a basket of stocks from developing economies including China, India, and Brazil) was the standout performer, rising on optimism about the Trump-Xi trade talks in Beijing. Small-cap American companies (IWM, a fund tracking the 2,000 smallest publicly listed US firms) slipped as inflation concerns weigh on domestic business costs. Tech stocks were barely changed. The short-term bill position (SGOV, US government bills that mature within three months) continues its daily trickle since replacing the Bitcoin allocation after Bitcoin fell below its 200-day moving average earlier in the experiment.WatchingWe are watching the emerging market fund's momentum. A real US-China trade deal would likely push it significantly higher, and we would then evaluate whether to increase its weight. We are also watching whether small-cap stocks continue to lag the tech positions: if that gap grows past 10 percentage points over a rolling month, we would consider moving that allocation to a higher-momentum position.
D12
Note
HOLDPerformance took the biggest hit of the day across all six portfolios, falling 1.18%, which is exactly what to expect from a high-conviction growth mandate on a day when inflation fears dominated the news. The April CPI print at 3.8% annually spooked investors in technology and growth stocks: when inflation stays high, the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates elevated, and high rates are particularly painful for growth companies whose value depends on earnings expected years into the future. The Nasdaq-100 (QQQ, the fund tracking America's 100 largest non-financial companies, heavily weighted in technology) fell nearly 1%, technology stocks (XLK) fell 1.6%, small-cap stocks (IWM, a fund of smaller US companies) fell 1.5%, and emerging market stocks (EEM, a fund tracking developing-country stock markets) fell nearly 3%. The noted investor Michael Burry, who correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis, added to the day's anxiety with a public warning that the US technology index is trading at 43 times annual earnings, a stretched valuation historically associated with corrections. That said, one day of selling on a macro data print is not a thesis invalidation. No exit trigger has fired.WatchingWe are watching whether the Federal Reserve signals that rate cuts are off the table for 2026. If the Fed publicly abandons its projection of one cut this year and instead signals rates could rise, growth stocks would face a sustained valuation reset. That would be a thesis-level event for Performance and would prompt a serious review of the Nasdaq and technology positions. We are also watching Bitcoin (BTC): the portfolio exited its Bitcoin fund (IBIT, an ETF that holds Bitcoin) when BTC fell below its 200-day average price earlier this cycle, parking the proceeds in T-bills (SGOV). If BTC reclaims and holds its 200-day average, we would re-enter.
D11
Note
HOLDPerformance is the leader at 5.4% total gain in 10 days. Technology stocks (XLK, a fund focused on the US tech sector) and emerging market equities (EEM, which holds stocks from countries like China, India, and Brazil) are both up strongly. The 10% allocation parked in ultra-short Treasury bills (SGOV) was placed there when Bitcoin fell below its 200-day moving average (a technical signal suggesting the trend has turned negative), triggering the crypto exit rule. That cash is earning a small return while waiting for the next entry signal. Markets are closed for the weekend, so no changes today.WatchingWhether Bitcoin climbs back above its 200-day moving average, which would reactivate the crypto entry signal. Both global money supply expansion and the BTC trend need to be positive before rotating cash back into crypto exposure.
D10
Note
HOLDMarkets are closed for the weekend, but the week was the portfolio's strongest so far. Technology stocks (QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq's 100 largest companies, and XLK, a fund focused entirely on technology) led the way, driven by strong corporate earnings from the biggest tech firms. Emerging market stocks (EEM, a fund holding companies across China, India, Brazil, South Korea, and others) also outperformed, benefiting from a weaker US dollar that makes their goods more competitive globally. One note of caution surfaced this week: the largest technology companies spent a combined 725 billion dollars on artificial intelligence infrastructure this quarter, pushing their free cash flow to a 12-year low. Heavy investment is expected to precede revenue, but if revenue does not follow within a quarter or two, investor patience with these valuations may run out. No position is underperforming its sector significantly.WatchingWe are watching whether the major technology companies' enormous AI spending begins to show up in revenue growth. If the next earnings season reveals continued heavy spending without matching revenue gains, the case for holding such a large technology allocation gets harder to defend, and we would review rotating a portion of QQQ and XLK into other high-conviction positions.
D9
Note
HOLDA challenging week for growth-heavy portfolios. US consumer sentiment hit a record low, Friday brought a broad tech selloff, and Big Tech companies are collectively burning through cash at the fastest pace in over a decade to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure. The Performance portfolio holds QQQ, a fund tracking the hundred largest US technology-focused companies, and XLK, a concentrated technology sector fund, so this matters. The good news is that the Bitcoin position was already exited when Bitcoin fell below its 200-day price average last week. That allocation now sits in short-term Treasury bills (SGOV), protecting capital while conditions reset.WatchingWe are watching whether the AI spending wave by the largest technology companies eventually forces investors to question valuations. Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta together are spending 725 billion dollars on AI infrastructure this year, pushing their cash generation to the lowest level in over a decade. If the market starts heavily discounting this, QQQ and XLK could face more pressure. We are also watching small-cap stocks through IWM, a fund tracking smaller US companies, to see whether domestic economic conditions can support that part of the portfolio.
D8
Note
HOLDTechnology stocks led markets higher today. The Nasdaq-100 (QQQ, a fund tracking the 100 largest US technology and growth companies) and the technology sector fund (XLK) both had strong sessions, driven by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence spending and relief from the strong jobs report which reduces recession fears. Performance has now gone eight consecutive trading days without a losing session, an unusual streak that reflects the current broad risk-on mood. Bitcoin (the largest cryptocurrency) remains below its long-term 200-day average price, so the mandate keeps that 10% in short-term government bills (SGOV) rather than the Bitcoin fund (IBIT). No trigger to re-enter crypto yet.WatchingWe are watching whether Bitcoin climbs back above its 200-day average price and holds there for several trading sessions. If it does, the mandate calls for moving back into the Bitcoin fund to push for higher returns. We are also watching technology earnings reports over the coming weeks: strong results would confirm the current rally, while disappointments could trigger a rotation out of growth stocks.
D7
Trade
EXIT IBIT -> SGOVBitcoin closed below its 200-day moving average today. The performance mandate is explicit: exit IBIT entirely when BTC falls below its 200-day MA OR global M2 stops expanding. The 200-day MA trigger fired, so we exit the full 10% Bitcoin position and park the proceeds in SGOV (0-3 month US Treasuries) until the next risk-on signal. The other five holdings are unchanged - this is a clean rotation out of crypto, not a defensive de-risking of the equity book.WatchingFor BTC to reclaim its 200-day MA on a sustained basis (not a single-day spike), and for global M2 to confirm a fresh expansion. When both conditions hold again, we re-enter IBIT at 10% out of SGOV. Until then, the cash drag from SGOV is the cost of respecting the rule.Exited per mandate: BTC < 200-day MA. Re-enter only when BTC > 200d MA AND global M2 expanding.
D6
Note
HOLDAll six holdings gained today as equity markets moved broadly higher. The technology components, both the Nasdaq-100 fund and the focused technology sector fund, rose over one percent as investors grew more confident about the AI investment cycle after chip-maker AMD beat its earnings expectations by a wide margin. Emerging market stocks rose over two percent, adding solid gains to this book's ten-percent allocation there. Bitcoin, held through an exchange-traded fund called IBIT, was essentially flat, which is normal on a day when institutional investors are focused on earnings rather than crypto. The global money supply condition that justifies holding Bitcoin continues to hold.WatchingWhether Bitcoin stays above its 200-day moving average and whether global money supply keeps growing. If either condition reverses, we exit the Bitcoin position. Also watching whether the technology sector's strong run starts to slow versus the broader market, which would signal a rotation.
D5
Note
HOLDA strong day across all six positions. The tech sector (XLK, which holds US technology companies) led with nearly a two-percent gain, boosted by news of Apple holding early discussions with Intel about chip manufacturing. The Nasdaq-100 fund (QQQ, which tracks the 100 largest non-financial companies on the Nasdaq exchange) gained 1.25 percent. Small-cap stocks (IWM, which tracks roughly 2,000 smaller US companies) rose 1.49 percent. Emerging market stocks (EEM, which holds companies across developing economies globally) surged over two percent as the dollar eased. Bitcoin, held here via IBIT (a fund that owns actual Bitcoin so investors can buy it through a normal brokerage account), gained 1.61 percent as Bitcoin itself rose to around 80,740 dollars. The two conditions for holding IBIT remain intact: global money supply is still expanding, and Bitcoin is still trading above its long-run average price trend.WatchingWe are watching global M2 trends. M2 is a measure of how much money is circulating in the world's financial system. When major central banks collectively begin pulling money back out, Bitcoin and growth assets historically fall first. That is the exit signal for IBIT. We are also watching whether small-cap stocks (IWM) continue participating in the rally alongside large-cap tech. When small companies stop keeping up with large ones, it is often an early sign that investors are becoming more cautious about economic growth broadly.
D4
Note
HOLDA strong Monday for the Performance portfolio. Technology stocks (held via QQQ, the Nasdaq-100 fund tracking the 100 largest non-financial US tech companies, and XLK, a fund concentrated in the technology sector) continued moving higher as the AI computing investment cycle showed no signs of slowing. Bitcoin (held via IBIT, an exchange-traded fund that tracks Bitcoin directly) added nearly one percent today, supported by healthy global liquidity conditions. Small and mid-sized US companies (IWM) and emerging market stocks (EEM, which tracks developing economies) also rose, suggesting investors are comfortable taking risk again after a period of uncertainty. The portfolio is now up 1.58 percent from its starting value, the strongest of the four books. Every position is contributing positively to the total return.WatchingWe are watching Bitcoin's relationship to its 200-day average price, which is a widely followed measure of long-term trend direction. The strategy holds Bitcoin only when it is above that average and when global money supply is expanding. Right now both conditions are met. A sharp reversal in Bitcoin below its long-term average would trigger an exit of the IBIT position.
D3
Note
HOLDThe growth portfolio had the strongest opening of all four books, led by the technology sector fund (XLK) and Bitcoin (IBIT, a fund that holds Bitcoin and trades like a stock). The conditions that justify those holdings are still in place. Global money supply, the total amount of money circulating in the world economy, is still expanding, which historically pushes investors toward higher-risk, higher-return assets. The AI investment cycle driving massive spending at large technology companies, which benefits the Nasdaq fund (QQQ) and XLK, continues with no sign of slowdown over the weekend.WatchingTwo conditions would cause us to exit our Bitcoin position: global money supply stops growing, or Bitcoin falls below its average price over the last 200 trading days. Neither condition is triggered. The more important near-term question is how the new Fed chair handles monetary policy after May 15. A more restrictive approach could slow money supply growth and eventually flip the Bitcoin exit signal. We are watching his first public statements closely.
D2
Note
HOLDThe Performance portfolio concentrates in the assets with the highest growth potential: technology companies, small US businesses, and Bitcoin. This week was a good one for all of them. Tech giants reported strong earnings, the Nasdaq reached a record high, and Bitcoin climbed. The reason the portfolio holds Bitcoin is that two conditions are active right now: Bitcoin is trending above its long-term average price, and the total amount of money circulating in the global economy is growing. Both of those conditions tend to support Bitcoin's price. We are holding because nothing has changed.WatchingThe key condition for keeping Bitcoin in the portfolio is that it stays above its long-term average price. If Bitcoin falls below that level, we exit the crypto position. That is the single clearest sell signal for this part of the book.
D1
Note
HOLDBest day of the four books. The Apple earnings beat drove a broad tech rally (QQQ +1.17%, XLK +1.60%, SPY +0.67%) and Bitcoin had a particularly strong session (IBIT +2.82%) extending the April institutional ETF inflow streak (US$2.43B in April, BlackRock IBIT now holds 3.8% of total BTC supply, BTC at ~$77k testing the $78-80k local-top zone). Small caps (IWM +0.34%) and EM (EEM +0.50%) participated lightly. The crypto entry rule is satisfied (global M2 expanding + BTC above 200d MA) so the IBIT 10% sleeve stays. No 30-day sector underperformance signal yet because we need that history first.WatchingBTC support at $75k must hold for the rally to continue, a breach would invalidate the IBIT entry condition. Sector spread between QQQ and SPY (tech leadership) on a rolling 30-day basis. EEM entry/exit signals tied to the dollar weakness phase. Apple-driven tech sentiment holding through Q1 earnings season.
D0
Note
Performance opens fully invested with no defensive positioning. 80% growth equities, 10% crypto, 10% EM. Bitcoin allocation is active: global M2 is expanding and BTC is above its 200-day moving average. The mandate accepts volatility as the price of admission.WatchingBTC 200-day MA and global M2 direction. Both must support risk-on for crypto to stay. Nasdaq earnings revision momentum is the primary equity trigger for position sizing changes.
Most days the log says no change. That is the point.