Daily log
34 entriesD33
Warn
HOLDThis portfolio's job is to grow steadily without scary swings, measured by a number called the Sharpe ratio, which rewards return earned with low volatility. A calm day across cash like holdings, gold, and a small stock sleeve nudged it up slightly. The honest problem is that its risk adjusted score has been mediocre for weeks: it is making money but not enough relative to the bumps along the way. No single holding is clearly dragging the rest down day after day, which is the specific trigger that would force a trim, so the discipline is to wait rather than tinker.WatchingWe are watching whether any one holding starts consistently hurting the smooth return goal over a stretch of days. If one does, we would trim it. For now the mix stays as is.Risk adjusted return remains below the portfolio's own target, the main thing to fix if it persists.
D32
Warn
HOLDToday was an unusual day for Preservation: every position fell at the same time. Gold fell, bonds fell, inflation-protected bonds fell, international stocks fell, and the small stock-market allocation fell. This almost never happens to a portfolio built for low correlation. The cause was the geopolitical shock from the Iran strike: in the immediate hours after a military escalation, investors sometimes sell everything and hold cash, pushing uncorrelated assets temporarily in the same direction. The portfolio Sharpe ratio, which is a measure of how much return the portfolio is earning per unit of risk (a score above 1.0 is the target), has dropped below the threshold today as a result of this unusual correlation spike. This is a warning, not a verdict: one bad day does not change a well-constructed portfolio. The mandate says to act only if this deterioration holds for five consecutive days.WatchingWe are watching whether the correlation between gold and stocks persists into this week. If gold keeps falling while stocks recover, that is a normal separation and the Sharpe should recover. If both keep falling together for multiple days, that would trigger a review of which position is not earning its volatility budget.Sharpe ratio dropped to -0.09 (below the 0.7 trigger threshold). Single-day correlation spike from geopolitical shock. Monitoring for sustained pattern before any position trim.
D31
Note
HOLDThis portfolio's job is to grow steadily without scary swings, measured by the Sharpe ratio (a score for how much return you earn for each unit of nervousness, or volatility, you take on). It holds a defensive spread: short-term US Treasury bills (SGOV, essentially cash that pays interest), gold (GLD), broad US stocks (SPY), inflation-protected bonds (TIP), longer-term Treasuries (IEF), and international stocks (EFA). Markets were closed this weekend so values carry over unchanged. The mix is doing what it should, delivering a smooth ride, so we are holding.WatchingWe are watching whether any two of these holdings start moving in lockstep. The portfolio works because its pieces zig and zag at different times; if two of them begin rising and falling together, the diversification weakens and we would trim one. We are also watching that the overall ride stays calm rather than choppy.
D30
Note
HOLDMarkets are closed for the weekend. This portfolio focuses on protecting capital while still earning a reasonable return, measured by a metric called the Sharpe ratio (which compares returns to the amount of risk taken to achieve them; higher is better). The current Sharpe ratio is 1.37, comfortably above the 1.0 target that serves as the north star. All six positions contributed positively this week, with the stock market components (SPY and EFA, funds that track US and international companies) leading gains while the safety components (SGOV, short-term US government bills, and TIP, inflation-protected bonds) held steady.WatchingWe are watching whether bond yields continue to rise next week. If US government bond rates climb sharply, the two bond-related positions in this portfolio (IEF and TIP) could lose value, which would drag down the Sharpe ratio. A sustained drop below 1.0 on the Sharpe ratio would trigger a review of which positions are hurting risk-adjusted returns.
D29
Note
HOLDA strong day for this portfolio. Gold rallied, stocks advanced on ceasefire news, and inflation-protection bonds through TIP, a fund that pays more when consumer prices rise, held steady. Every single position contributed positively today. The Sharpe ratio for this portfolio has climbed to 1.37. The Sharpe ratio measures whether you are being paid fairly for the risk you take: a number above 1.0 means you are earning more than one unit of return for each unit of price swings, which is exactly what this portfolio targets. Capital preservation is working as intended.WatchingWe are watching whether gold through GLD and equities through SPY begin moving in lockstep. These two holdings normally act as ballast against each other. If their 30-day correlation climbs above 0.80, meaning they rise and fall together 80 percent of the time, they stop providing mutual protection and we would need to rethink the balance. No sign of that concern today.
D28
Note
HOLDNews read: macro stability supports preservation mandate. SGOV and IEF anchoring downside; SPY (+3.24%) and EFA (+1.50%) contributing measured upside. GLD slightly negative (-0.54%) but within acceptable range for inflation hedge. Positioning: six-asset mix (SGOV/GLD/SPY/TIP/IEF/EFA) providing balanced risk profile. Portfolio +0.66% since launch, max drawdown -0.97% — well within capital preservation objectives. Reasoning today: no allocation drift, all positions within thesis. Hold.WatchingInflation re-acceleration signal for TIP and GLD position sizing. IEF response to any 10Y move above 4.7%.
D27
Note
HOLDThe geopolitical environment remains a tailwind for Preservation's defensive positioning. Short-dated government bonds (SGOV) are steady. Gold (GLD) is down modestly today but still above where we entered. The international equity fund (EFA, which holds developed-market stocks outside the US) is performing in line with its benchmark. No trigger has fired: the 30-day Sharpe ratio (a measure of return per unit of risk) remains above the 0.7 threshold for intervention, correlation between positions is below the 0.80 ceiling, and realized volatility is well within the 12% annual limit. We are in a classic wait-and-hold environment where the construction is doing exactly what it should.WatchingWe are watching whether inflation data over the next two months causes the Federal Reserve to raise rates again. A surprise rate hike would hurt the bond positions (IEF) and potentially pressure gold. It would also push us to review whether the IEF position should be trimmed in favor of shorter-duration bonds like SGOV, which lose less value when rates rise.
D26
Note
HOLDAfter the Memorial Day holiday, markets are absorbing the ongoing US-Iran conflict without a major new sell-off. The Preservation portfolio holds a deliberately cautious mix, with US Treasuries (IEF and SGOV, short-term government bills) providing a low-volatility anchor, gold (GLD) offering inflation and geopolitical protection, and international equities (EFA, which holds developed-market stocks outside the US, and SPY) providing modest growth exposure. None of the positions have breached the triggers for concern: the rolling Sharpe ratio, the correlation threshold, or the volatility ceiling. The current environment, with elevated geopolitical risk and persistent inflation concerns, actually favors the defensive construction.WatchingWe are watching whether gold resumes its upward trend or continues correcting. Gold recently hit a multi-year high and has been pulling back slightly. If gold falls more than 10% from its recent peak, we would review the GLD allocation because it would suggest either a risk-off dollar rally or a change in inflation expectations, both of which would affect other parts of the portfolio too.
D25
Note
HOLDThis portfolio is designed to protect capital first and grow it second, measured by the Sharpe ratio (a number that tells you how much return you are getting for each unit of risk you are taking). The portfolio currently sits at a Sharpe of 0.40, which is below our target of 1.0. The six positions are diversified across cash-like securities (SGOV, essentially parking money in very short-term government bills), gold (GLD), US stocks (SPY), inflation-protected bonds (TIP), regular bonds (IEF), and international stocks (EFA). No position is dominating or dragging enough to warrant action. Markets closed, no new data to process.WatchingWe are watching the correlation between gold and stocks over the next week. If they start moving together too closely (above 0.80), we would need to trim one to keep the portfolio's risk-spreading benefit intact. The PCE inflation data on Thursday could also move both bonds and gold.
D24
Note
HOLDCapital is preserved. The mix of T-bills (SGOV, short-term government debt that acts like cash), gold, and a modest equity allocation keeps volatility low. The equity positions pulled the portfolio forward this week while bonds dragged slightly. The Sharpe ratio (a measure of return earned per unit of risk taken) sits at 0.40, below our target of 1.0, largely because overall returns are modest rather than because risk is too high.WatchingWhether the Sharpe ratio improves as equity gains compound. If it remains below 0.7 through June, we would consider trimming the bond allocation and increasing the T-bill cash position to reduce portfolio volatility without giving up much return.
D23
Warn
HOLDMarkets are closed this weekend. Preservation is built to earn good returns without taking big risks. The rising-rate environment is making this harder right now. Government bonds (IEF) and inflation-linked bonds (TIP, bonds whose payouts grow with consumer prices) are both under pressure because when interest rates go up, the fixed payments on older bonds are worth less compared to new ones. Gold and the broad US stock market are holding up well, but not enough to fully offset the bond drag. The risk-adjusted quality of the portfolio, measured by the Sharpe ratio (a standard score where above 1.0 is good and above 0.7 is our minimum), has been sitting at 0.40 for the past week. This is the trigger we watch for potential adjustments to the bond positions.WatchingWe are watching whether interest rates stabilize or keep rising. If the US central bank raises rates later this year, as markets currently expect it might, bonds will face further pressure and we would reduce that exposure, shifting toward short-term Treasury bills (SGOV, essentially cash that earns interest) to protect the risk profile.Portfolio Sharpe ratio has been below the 0.7 minimum threshold for the past week (currently 0.40), driven by bond and TIPS drag in the rising-rate environment. No immediate trade, but bond positions are on watch.
D22
Warn
HOLDToday tested what this portfolio is supposed to do. Both gold and government bonds, the two assets that are supposed to hold up when stocks fall, declined at the same time that most equities also gave back ground. That kind of correlation, where everything moves down together, is exactly what a capital-preservation portfolio tries to avoid. The portfolio's Sharpe ratio (a measure that compares how much the portfolio earns relative to how much it swings up and down) has slipped to 0.40, well below the 1.0 target. The rules require a position's Sharpe contribution to be negative for five consecutive days before trimming, so no trade fires today, but the flag is real.WatchingWhether this stretch of gold and bond weakness continues into next week. Five consecutive days of a position dragging the portfolio's risk-adjusted return negative would trigger a review of that position. The next inflation data releases and any central bank statements will be the key inputs.Portfolio Sharpe has dropped to 0.40, below the 1.0 mandate target. Gold (GLD) and intermediate bonds (IEF) fell on the same day as equities, reducing the diversification benefit. No five-day trigger has been reached yet.
D21
Note
HOLDThe capital preservation portfolio gave back a small amount today, with gold and stocks both declining while the Treasury bill position (SGOV, a fund that holds very short-term US government debt) held flat as designed. The Sharpe ratio (a measure of return per unit of risk, where higher is better) sits at 0.77 on an annualized basis. That is just above the 0.7 trigger threshold that would force us to review the position mix. The portfolio is doing its job, keeping losses small on down days, but the rising rate environment is creating headwinds for the bond and inflation-protected bond positions. The equity and gold positions are providing the positive return cushion.WatchingWe are watching the Sharpe ratio closely. If it dips below 0.7, the mandate calls for reviewing whether any position is dragging on risk-adjusted returns. The inflation-protected bond fund (TIP) is the weakest link at -0.75% since launch, but that is within normal range for a three-week holding period.
D20
Note
HOLDGold and US stocks both rose today, which is the ideal scenario for this portfolio: two of its largest holdings benefiting from different dynamics at the same time. The portfolio Sharpe ratio (a measure of how much return is earned per unit of risk taken, where above 1.0 is considered good) now sits at 1.70, comfortably above the 1.0 target. Short-term US government bills (SGOV, essentially cash parked in very short-term government loans) continue to drag slightly because inflation is running above the rate those bills pay, but that position exists to lower overall volatility, not to generate returns. No trigger for a position change has fired.WatchingWe are watching whether the portfolio risk profile stays clean: no two positions becoming too correlated with each other (moving in the same direction removes the diversification benefit), and overall portfolio volatility staying below 12 percent annualized. Both metrics are healthy today.
D19
Warn
HOLDToday was a reminder that even carefully selected low-risk assets can fall together during periods of sharp inflation panic. Gold, stocks, international equities, and inflation-protected bonds (bonds whose face value adjusts with the cost of living, so they maintain real purchasing power) all declined in the same session. Only the short-term US Treasury bills -- essentially a government savings account -- stayed flat. This pushed the portfolio's risk-adjusted score, called the Sharpe ratio (a measure of how much return you earn per unit of risk), well below its target. One difficult session in a young portfolio does not signal a strategy change, but it does flag that the diversification tools are temporarily not working as expected.WatchingWe are watching whether gold and inflation-protected bonds start moving independently from stocks again over the next week. That separation -- gold zigging when stocks zag -- is what makes a low-risk diversified portfolio function properly. If all assets continue moving together, the portfolio's construction needs to be reviewed.Sharpe ratio dropped to 0.12, significantly below the 1.0 mandate threshold. Driven by today's broad correlated sell-off. Five consecutive sessions below the threshold would trigger a formal review of each position's risk contribution.
D18
Note
HOLDMarkets are closed. Preservation's job is to protect capital while still earning a return above inflation, and at positive 0.90% through 18 days it is doing that job quietly. The portfolio holds a mix designed for low volatility: short-term Treasury bills (SGOV, essentially cash that earns interest), gold (GLD), US stocks (SPY), inflation-protected bonds (TIP), regular Treasury bonds (IEF), and international stocks (EFA). Gold has been the star at positive 2.58%, while the bond positions are slightly underwater. Friday's market drop would have been cushioned by the 25% cash-equivalent position, which barely moves regardless of what happens in stocks.WatchingWe are watching whether the rising tension in bond markets (the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 4.55%, the highest in a year) starts to push the portfolio's overall volatility above our comfort zone. If realized volatility (how much the portfolio actually bounces around day-to-day) crosses 12% annualized, Preservation's rules call for trimming risk. We are not there yet, but a bad week in both stocks and bonds could push us closer.
D17
Note
HOLDThe Preservation portfolio holds a mix of short-term US government bills, physical gold, US stocks, inflation-linked bonds (TIPS -- Treasury bonds whose value adjusts with inflation), medium-term Treasury bonds, and international stocks. The goal is to maximize the Sharpe ratio, a number that measures how much return is earned for each unit of risk taken, and to stay above a minimum threshold of 0.7. No trigger has fired this weekend: no position has seen its risk-adjusted contribution turn negative for five consecutive days, no two holdings have become excessively correlated, and portfolio volatility remains well below the 12 percent annual threshold. Rising yields are a mild headwind for the bond positions but support the case for holding TIPS.WatchingWe are watching whether the portfolio's rolling 30-day Sharpe ratio stays above 0.7. Below that level, the mandate requires de-risking by selling more volatile positions and moving into short-term Treasury bills. We are comfortably above that line today.
D16
Note
HOLDPreservation was built for exactly this kind of environment. When government bond rates spike and send stocks and gold lower at the same time, the SGOV position (a fund holding ultra-short US government IOUs that reprices quickly when rates move) stays stable and actually earns more as rates rise. The inflation-linked bond position (TIP, a fund where the payouts adjust upward with rising prices) is well-placed: rising inflation is precisely why we own it. Gold fell on Friday but has still been one of the strongest assets year-to-date. The portfolio design is working as intended. No action is needed.WatchingWe are watching whether overall portfolio volatility stays controlled. If the portfolio starts swinging as much as a pure stock portfolio day-to-day for several weeks in a row, we would shift more capital into SGOV to calm things down. Current volatility remains well within the bounds the mandate allows.
D15
Note
HOLDPreservation's job is to grow capital steadily without taking on large risks, and today was a test of that construction. Everything fell except the short-term cash fund (SGOV, a fund holding 3-month US government bills), which barely moved because its value comes from interest payments rather than price swings. Gold gave back some of its recent gains as rising bond yields made it temporarily less attractive. The portfolio fell about half as much as a stock-only book would have today. The weekly Sharpe ratio, a measure of return earned per unit of risk taken, stands at 1.97, well above the 0.70 floor. No position has triggered the five-day underperformance rule.WatchingWe are watching whether gold keeps pulling back as yields rise. If gold's contribution to the portfolio's overall risk-adjusted return stays negative for five consecutive trading days, we review reducing the position. Today is day one of this watch. No action yet.
D14
Note
HOLDA quiet, positive day. Technology rose, gold was flat, and government bonds ticked up slightly. The Preservation portfolio is delivering what it promises: steady, positive daily returns without big swings. Gold (GLD, a fund holding physical gold bars) is up more than 5% since launch and equities are contributing steadily. The one mild watch item is that European stocks (EFA, a fund tracking developed markets outside the US) dipped slightly on geopolitical caution following the Trump-Xi summit, but the contribution to the portfolio is small.WatchingWe are watching whether the inflation picture keeps worsening. With US producer prices jumping to 6% in April, driven by energy costs from the Iran conflict, the inflation-protected bonds position (TIP, a fund holding government bonds that adjust for inflation) becomes more important as a portfolio anchor. If inflation stays above 4%, that position would likely grow at the expense of the nominal treasury position.
D13
Warn
HOLDA slightly negative day as gold retreated and stocks slipped. The April inflation reading at 3.8 percent per year is the highest in three years, driven largely by war-elevated energy prices. This matters for Preservation because the portfolio holds inflation-linked bonds (TIP, a fund whose payouts adjust upward with inflation) and standard treasury bonds (IEF, a fund with fixed payouts). When inflation runs hot, TIP gains an advantage over IEF. Real yields, meaning the return you earn on government bonds after subtracting inflation, are currently around 0.7 percent, still positive but narrowing. The Sharpe ratio (a measure of return per unit of risk) stands at 6.26 annualized, well above the 0.70 warning threshold.WatchingWe are watching whether real yields on government bonds turn negative. That would happen if inflation keeps rising faster than bond yields. Today's data brought us a step closer to that scenario. If real yields do go negative, we would increase the TIP allocation at the expense of the standard bond holding (IEF). We are not at that threshold yet, but the next few CPI prints will matter.Inflation at 3.8 percent is narrowing real yields toward the threshold where the TIP overweight trigger fires. Next CPI print is the key watch.
D12
Note
HOLDPreservation (a portfolio built to maximize risk-adjusted return, meaning the best possible return per unit of volatility) absorbed today's inflation shock better than any other macro portfolio, falling only 0.46% on a day when the Nasdaq dropped nearly 1%. The portfolio's three defensive anchors did their job: US T-bills (SGOV, a fund holding 3-month government bills that pay short-term interest) were effectively flat, while inflation-linked bonds (TIP, a fund whose interest payments adjust upward when consumer prices rise) and regular Treasury bonds (IEF) both fell only modestly. Gold dipped today despite the hot inflation print, which is a known paradox explained by real yields: when the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates high, even high inflation does not automatically help gold. The SPY and EFA equity positions pulled the portfolio down slightly, as expected on a risk-off day. No Sharpe trigger, correlation breach, or volatility spike has fired. The portfolio is performing as designed: lower highs, lower lows, smoother ride.WatchingWe are watching whether the inflation-protected bond fund (TIP) begins to outperform the regular bond fund (IEF). With CPI at 3.8%, TIP's inflation-linked interest payments should mechanically adjust upward, giving it an edge over IEF whose payments are fixed in nominal terms. If this divergence becomes visible over the coming weeks, it would validate the current allocation and might prompt a review of increasing TIP at IEF's expense.
D11
Note
HOLDThe capital preservation portfolio is working as designed, delivering positive returns with low volatility. Gold (GLD, a fund that holds physical gold) continues to be the standout at nearly 7% gain, which is exactly what a Sharpe-optimized portfolio wants: high return per unit of risk. The cash-equivalent position (SGOV, which holds ultra-short US government bonds) is slightly negative, which is unusual but not alarming. No correlation breach between positions, and the portfolio's diversification across six uncorrelated assets is precisely built for moments of geopolitical stress like the current Iran situation.WatchingWhether the geopolitical stress causes correlations between gold and equities to spike. In a real crisis, everything can sell off together briefly, which would hurt the portfolio's Sharpe ratio (a measure of return earned per unit of risk taken). If 30-day rolling correlations between any two positions exceed 0.80, a trade would be flagged.
D10
Note
HOLDMarkets are closed for the weekend. The week illustrated a core tension that this portfolio is designed to navigate: gold (GLD, physical gold fund) has gained nearly seven percent since launch, while cash-equivalent securities (SGOV, very short-term US Treasury bills) have barely moved in real terms. In an environment where prices keep rising, safe cash-like instruments protect you from market drops but do not protect the buying power of your money. The portfolio holds gold precisely to offset what cash cannot do. The full mix of stocks (SPY and EFA, international developed-market equities), inflation-linked bonds (TIP, which adjust payouts automatically as prices rise), standard government bonds (IEF), and gold means no single bad scenario undermines the whole book. All major positions are positive since launch.WatchingWe are watching whether daily portfolio swings increase in size over the coming weeks. This portfolio is built for consistency over speed. If the rolling risk-adjusted return (Sharpe ratio, a measure that compares how much gain the portfolio earns per unit of daily swings it takes) falls below a healthy threshold, that would be the signal to reduce the higher-volatility positions and add to the stable ones.
D9
Note
HOLDThe mood heading into the weekend is cautious: US consumers are deeply pessimistic, global growth signals are mixed, and tech stocks pulled back. Preservation's construction is designed for exactly this kind of environment. The T-bill position (SGOV, a fund holding very short-term US government debt) earns a steady return regardless of stock market noise. Gold continued to strengthen, which is natural when investors are nervous. The portfolio is not chasing return right now. It is holding a disciplined mix where every asset must earn its volatility.WatchingEach Friday we check the Sharpe ratio, a measure of how much return we earn for each unit of risk we take. If it drops below 0.7, we flag a warning. We are also monitoring whether the equity and bond positions start moving together more closely, which would signal that the diversification effect is weakening.
D8
Note
HOLDThe Preservation portfolio puts capital protection before returns, and this week it delivered on both. Gold and global stocks contributed gains, while the cash equivalent (SGOV, a fund holding ultra-short US government bills) and inflation-protected bonds (TIP, a fund whose payouts adjust with rising prices) acted as quiet anchors against big swings. Portfolio volatility remains well below the mandate limit, and the Sharpe ratio (a measure of how much return the portfolio earns for each unit of risk it takes on) is strong at 13. The portfolio is doing what it was designed to do: participate in the upside without concentrated bets on any single outcome.WatchingWe are watching whether European and international stocks (held through EFA, a fund tracking companies in developed markets outside the US) maintain their recent close tracking with US stocks. The mandate requires that no two positions move in lockstep over a rolling 30-day window. If SPY and EFA become too correlated for several weeks, we would trim one of the equity positions to maintain the diversification this portfolio depends on.
D7
Note
HOLDToday was a quiet, modestly positive day. Gold (GLD, a fund holding physical gold) continued rising as investors use it as a store of value that is independent of any government decision. US stocks (SPY) were flat, the short-term government bills (SGOV, which function like a savings account paying around four and a half percent per year) held steady, and European stocks (EFA) fell slightly. The small EFA allocation limited that drag. The portfolio moved up by a quarter of a percent. No volatility, correlation, or drawdown trigger has fired. The risk profile remains healthy.WatchingWe are watching whether the overall volatility of this portfolio stays within acceptable limits. The mandate requires action if the portfolio swings more than twelve percent on an annualized basis. We are well inside that limit today. The Friday Sharpe audit will be the next formal check on risk-adjusted performance.
D6
Note
HOLDToday was this portfolio's strongest single session since launch, with gold surging, European and international stocks rising well, and even the government bond position turning positive. Preservation holds a deliberately diverse set of assets precisely because they tend not to move together. Gold gained almost three and a half percent while short-term Treasury bills barely moved, which is exactly the uncorrelated behavior the portfolio is designed to capture. All positions remain within tolerance, and there is no sign of two holdings moving in lockstep in a way that would reduce the diversification benefit.WatchingWhether gold and stocks continue to move somewhat independently. If they start rising and falling together for several weeks, the correlation between them could trigger a portfolio adjustment. A formal risk audit measuring how much return the portfolio earns per unit of risk will be possible in about two weeks, once there is enough daily data.
D5
Note
HOLDA broadly positive day for this portfolio's mix of safe and real assets. Gold (GLD) and US equities (SPY) were the top contributors. The short-term Treasury bill fund (SGOV, which holds US government debt maturing in less than three months and behaves almost like cash) barely moved, as expected for a low-volatility anchor. Inflation-linked bonds (TIP, a fund whose payments are adjusted for inflation) slipped a fraction, which is normal noise. International developed-market stocks (EFA, which holds companies in Europe and Japan) contributed positively. The portfolio is doing its job: capturing most of today's upside with far less volatility than a pure equity portfolio would have.WatchingWe are watching whether gold and equities begin moving in the same direction consistently over the coming weeks. This portfolio holds both, and when two assets start behaving identically, the diversification benefit disappears. The mandate requires reducing one position when its 30-day correlation to another crosses 80 percent. With only five days of data we cannot compute this yet, but the gold-equity correlation is the signal we will monitor most carefully as the history builds.
D4
Note
HOLDToday was a difficult day for the portfolio's bond and inflation-linked bond positions. When oil prices rise sharply, bond investors worry that inflation will stay elevated, which keeps interest rates high, which in turn pushes bond prices lower. Our two bond funds (IEF, which holds medium-term US government bonds, and TIP, which holds bonds whose value adjusts with inflation) both fell slightly. Our gold position (GLD) also dipped, though gold has held up well over the past month as a buffer against currency stress. The short-term government bills fund (SGOV, essentially cash earning a small daily return) held flat as expected. Four days in, the portfolio is essentially at breakeven, which is actually the right outcome for a capital-preservation strategy in a volatile environment. Stability is the goal, not high returns.WatchingWe are watching whether inflation data continues to come in above the Federal Reserve's two percent target. If the next monthly price report shows consumer prices running above three percent again, the case for adding more inflation-adjusted bonds (TIP) and reducing regular government bonds (IEF) would strengthen. We are not at a trigger yet, and we need more days of data before any risk-based trigger can fire.
D3
Note
HOLDThe macro picture this weekend suits this portfolio's structure well. Sticky inflation (prices staying elevated rather than falling back to normal), elevated interest rates, and uncertainty around the Fed transition are exactly the conditions where mixing short-term Treasury bills (SGOV, essentially a very safe savings account paying daily interest), inflation-adjusted bonds (TIP, bonds whose payouts rise with prices), and gold (GLD) makes sense. The equity slice (SPY) contributed a small positive on Day 1, while the regular bond fund (IEF) was a minor drag. No position has breached any threshold that would require action.WatchingThe mandate says to trim any holding whose 30-day contribution to portfolio risk-adjusted return turns negative for five days running. The government bond fund (IEF) is the one to monitor most closely. If the new Fed chair signals higher-for-longer rates when he takes over on May 15, IEF could start dragging the portfolio's efficiency. Not at that threshold yet, but worth watching closely.
D2
Note
HOLDPreservation is designed to grow steadily without taking big risks. It spreads money across gold, stocks, inflation-protected bonds, and short-term government bills. On the first day, gold and stocks both contributed gains while the bond positions were roughly flat. The interesting thing to watch is that gold and stocks both went up at the same time. Normally they move independently of each other, which is why owning both is useful. If they start rising and falling together consistently, that is a sign the diversification is breaking down and we would need to reassess.WatchingWhether gold and stocks continue moving in the same direction day after day. If they do for an extended stretch, the benefit of holding both shrinks, and we would look at adjusting the mix.
D1
Note
HOLDA quiet positive day, doing exactly what Preservation is designed for. SPY +0.67% contributed +$13.44, GLD +0.64% added +$12.84, while the defensive sleeves modulated risk. SGOV printed an unusually large -0.27% (likely an ex-distribution print, will mechanically reverse). TIP and IEF each -0.21% mirroring the 10Y move. Day 1 contains no Sharpe signal because the 30-day rolling Sharpe needs at least 30 sessions before it can drop below the 0.7 trigger. Pairwise rolling correlation cap (above 0.80) and the 12% annualized vol cap cannot fire yet either.Watching30-day rolling Sharpe (fires earliest after Day 30). Pairwise rolling correlations starting Day 30. Realized portfolio volatility annualized vs the 12% cap. SGOV mechanical distribution dates on the iShares schedule.
D0
Note
Preservation opens defensively positioned: 25% T-bills, 20% gold, 20% SPY, 15% TIPS, 10% treasuries, 10% international. In a high-uncertainty macro environment, the Sharpe screen favors low-correlation, low-volatility assets. No position is held for return alone.WatchingPortfolio realized volatility (30-day rolling). Target: below 8% annualized. Also watching equity/bond correlation. If it turns persistently positive, reduce equity exposure.
Most days the log says no change. That is the point.