Daily log
35 entriesD99
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TOKEN_TEST_ONLYtestWatchingtest
D33
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HOLDThe big story today was China. The portfolio's China position, a fund that holds the largest Chinese companies, jumped almost four percent and lifted the whole book, while US stocks paused after hitting records and oil eased. This is exactly the kind of move the Compass is built to capture: it leans away from the US dollar and toward markets that gain ground as the dollar slowly loses value, with China at the center of that bet. Charles Gave, the investor whose framework guides this portfolio, argues that the safe haven role long played by US government bonds is quietly shifting to Chinese bonds, and that China's strengthening currency and large trade surplus make its cheap stock market a buy. Nothing today changed that thesis, so we hold every position.WatchingWe are watching whether China's currency keeps strengthening and whether Chinese bonds start beating gold, which would tell us the safe haven shift is accelerating and push us to lean further into Asia. We are also watching US government borrowing costs, which remain far below the level that would make bonds more attractive than gold.
D32
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HOLDEnergy stocks rose today as oil jumped on news that the US struck Iranian radar and drone facilities over the weekend. This is exactly what the Compass thesis anticipates: when the world energy supply routes come under pressure, the companies that produce and distribute energy tend to outperform. The portfolio gold fund (GLD, a fund that holds physical gold) fell about two percent, which fits a pattern the brain has flagged before: near-term consolidation after a historic rally is expected, and it does not change the longer-run case. The Swiss franc fund (FXF, a fund that tracks Switzerland currency value) also pulled back as investors bought dollars on the geopolitical scare. China stocks (MCHI, a fund holding Chinese companies) barely moved. No signal triggered a trade today: US government bond yields remain well below the threshold that would cause the portfolio to swap gold for bonds, and the dollar is weakening on a structural basis despite today bounce. The thesis is intact.WatchingWe are watching whether the energy crisis signal from March 2026 keeps compounding as the Iran conflict extends. If oil stays above $90 and energy stocks keep lagging the broader market, the Compass position in IXC (a fund holding global energy companies) becomes more interesting to add to. On the gold side, we are watching whether the current pullback stays within the normal consolidation range or turns into something larger, which would require re-examining the thesis.
D31
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HOLDMarkets were closed this weekend, so there were no new prices to react to and the bigger picture has not changed. The US dollar is still slowly losing ground against other major currencies as the US central bank (the Fed) and Japan's central bank work together to push it lower, and US inflation keeps drifting up rather than down. This portfolio is built for exactly that world: it owns gold (through a fund called GLD that holds physical gold), the Swiss franc (a traditionally safe currency, via FXF), global energy companies (IXC), and stock markets outside the US in China (MCHI), Latin America (ILF), and Argentina (ARGT). Nothing this weekend argued for changing that mix, so we are holding.WatchingWe are watching whether China's currency, the yuan, keeps strengthening. If that becomes a firmly established trend, it can pull global money toward Japanese government bonds and would make us reconsider how much gold we hold. We are also watching US government bond interest rates: if they climb much higher, bonds eventually become more attractive than gold and we would rotate. We are far from that point today.
D30
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HOLDMarkets are closed for the weekend. During the week, the broader trend that matters for this portfolio continued: the US dollar is weakening as the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) and Bank of Japan appear to be coordinating a deliberate shift. Gold held steady near recent levels. The US and Iran are discussing extending their ceasefire, which eased some pressure on oil prices but the underlying supply picture remains tight. China continues its shift away from deflation, which supports the case for owning Chinese assets over the medium term. Nothing this week changed the overall positioning of this portfolio, which remains tilted toward hard assets and non-dollar economies.WatchingWe are watching whether the US-Iran truce extension gets signed. If fighting resumes, oil prices would spike and energy stocks (which this portfolio owns through IXC, a global energy fund) would benefit, but the broader market turmoil could hurt other positions. The more important structural signal is whether the dollar continues to weaken against Asian currencies, especially the Chinese yuan, which would validate the core thesis of this portfolio.
D29
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HOLDGold continued climbing today as long-term inflation concerns hold steady, even as news of a US-Iran ceasefire deal pushed oil prices down toward their weakest level in a month. Gold is held here through GLD, a fund that holds physical gold bullion, and tends to rise when investors worry that paper money is losing value over time. Nothing about the ceasefire changed the underlying picture from the Gave and Darcet framework, a way of investing by identifying which economic regime each country is in: the US is still spending far more than it collects, dollar confidence is still eroding, and central banks are still buying gold at record rates. Energy stocks through IXC, a fund holding global energy companies, dipped as oil fell on the ceasefire news. China through MCHI and Latin America through ILF were mixed. The portfolio is correctly positioned for a world where real assets outperform paper assets.WatchingWe are watching whether the Iran ceasefire holds and deepens over the next 60 days. If oil keeps falling back toward 75 to 80 dollars a barrel, the case for energy stocks weakens and we would reassess the IXC allocation. A sustained oil drop without a matching drop in gold would signal a shift from energy-driven to monetary inflation, where we would tilt further toward gold and away from energy producers.
D28
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HOLDNews read: crypto sentiment bearish (BTC below $73K, $733M ETF outflows). Macro brief: US stagflation regime unchanged. Brain read: Gave/Darcet top-left quadrant confirmed — EM over DM, gold preferred over bonds. Allais threshold intact (10Y at ~4.3% vs 5.9% sell signal). Positioning: MCHI drags (-5.88%) on trade noise; IXC down (-10.87%) on oil softness; ARGT leading (+2.46%) on EM momentum. Reasoning today: no quadrant shift, no Allais trigger, no country signal flip. Six-way diversification performing as designed. Hold all positions.WatchingUS 10Y approaching 5.9% (Allais gold-to-bonds trigger). MCHI stabilization signal. Oil 7-year MA for IXC regime confirmation.
D27
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HOLDThe geopolitical environment remains tense, with the US-Iran conflict dampening risk appetite globally. China equities (MCHI) continue to be pressured by global risk-off sentiment, while gold (GLD) has been pulling back slightly after a long climb, which is consistent with profit-taking after a strong run rather than a fundamental shift. Oil prices remain elevated, keeping energy stocks (IXC) under pressure from margin concerns even as the underlying commodity is strong. The Swiss franc (FXF) continues to appreciate as investors seek safe assets outside the dollar. Our macro positioning, which is biased toward real assets and currencies that benefit from dollar weakness, remains aligned with the signals from the macro framework.WatchingWe are watching whether the dollar continues its structural decline. If other major central banks raise rates faster than the Federal Reserve (the US central bank), the dollar would weaken further and our gold, Swiss franc, and emerging market positions would benefit. A sudden dollar rebound, possibly triggered by a risk-off flight to safety, would be the signal to reduce non-dollar exposure.
D26
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HOLDUS markets reopened after the Memorial Day holiday. The US-Iran conflict, which flared up last week, has caused turbulence across energy and global equity markets. Our positioning in China equities (MCHI, a fund that tracks the biggest Chinese companies) and Latin America (ILF) reflects a bet on emerging market growth outside the Western sphere, and both are absorbing the geopolitical noise without a thesis change. Energy stocks (IXC) remain our weakest position as oil volatility spills over into equity prices, but the long-run case for energy ownership, which is that oil prices are structurally higher, has not changed. Gold (GLD, a fund backed by physical gold bars) is holding near its multi-year high. The Swiss franc (FXF, a fund that tracks the Swiss currency) continues to act as a defensive cushion.WatchingWe are watching whether the US-Iran tensions escalate further. A ceasefire or de-escalation would relieve pressure on risk assets and could lift emerging markets. An escalation would reinforce the case for gold and the Swiss franc as safe havens, and may trigger us to reconsider the energy position sizing.
D25
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HOLDMarkets are closed for the weekend and US markets will also be closed Monday for Memorial Day. Oil dropped about 5% on hopes of a US-Iran deal over the Strait of Hormuz (the narrow waterway through which about a fifth of the world's oil passes). If that deal materializes, it would ease energy costs globally and relieve one of the main pressures keeping inflation high. That is good news for the world economy but mixed for this portfolio, which holds energy (IXC, a fund that tracks global energy companies) and benefits when oil is expensive. The dollar continues to weaken against most currencies, which supports the anti-dollar thesis at the heart of this portfolio. China remains in a deflationary boom regime on the macro snapshot, meaning its economy is growing while prices stay tame, which is a healthy backdrop for Chinese stocks (MCHI, the China ETF we hold). Latin America (ILF) and Argentina (ARGT) are still underperforming, dragging the overall book down. No action today.WatchingWe are watching whether the US-Iran Hormuz agreement gets finalized early this week. If oil drops below $85 and stays there, the energy position (IXC) would face a significant headwind and we would need to reconsider its role. We are also watching the core PCE inflation number on Thursday, which will be the first major data point for incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
D24
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HOLDMarkets are closed this weekend. The week ended with the S&P 500 extending its rally, now up 13% since late March, driven by strong corporate earnings and optimism around Iran diplomacy. For this portfolio, the picture is mixed: China (MCHI, a fund tracking large Chinese companies) and energy (IXC, a global energy stock fund) continue to drag, while gold held steady. The new Fed chairman Kevin Warsh is taking office, and his reputation as a hawk could strengthen the dollar further, which is a headwind for our anti-dollar positioning. Nothing changed this week that invalidates the thesis, but the regime has not shifted in our favor either.WatchingWhether the new Fed chair signals a rate hike. A confirmed hawkish pivot would strengthen the dollar and pressure our gold, Swiss franc, and emerging market positions. We would not exit on the signal alone, but it would move us closer to reviewing the energy and Latin America allocations.
D23
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HOLDStock markets are closed this weekend, so no prices moved for this book. The dominant theme of the week was oil: crude has stayed near four-year highs, pushing up inflation and reinforcing expectations that the new Federal Reserve chair (the head of the US central bank), Kevin Warsh, will keep interest rates high or raise them further. That short-term pressure pushed gold slightly lower this week, since higher rates make government bonds more attractive relative to gold. But the core reason we hold gold here has not changed: the US government is spending far more than it collects, a pattern that historically weakens the dollar over time, which is when gold tends to rise. China (MCHI, a fund tracking Chinese companies) and energy (IXC, a fund of global energy companies) remain under pressure in the short term but are both bets on the same idea: real-economy assets outperform during dollar weakness.WatchingWe are watching whether US government bond rates keep climbing. Right now they sit near 4.56 percent annually. If they rise significantly further, bonds start generating income that competes with gold and we would consider rotating part of the gold position into long-dated US government bonds. We are not close to that threshold yet.
D22
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HOLDOil prices fell sharply today after two Chinese tankers successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway that has been at the center of the US-Iran conflict, raising hopes that the supply crunch might ease. Gold also pulled back as those same peace deal rumors reduced the safe-haven demand that has been driving it higher all year. China stocks, the biggest position in this portfolio, fell for the same reason: geopolitical anxiety has been propping up the appeal of Asian assets that are decoupled from the US dollar, and a perceived de-escalation temporarily reduces that appeal. None of this changes the underlying thesis: we own China, energy, gold, and Latin America because the dollar-dominant financial order is weakening over years, not days, and today's peace rumor does not alter that direction.WatchingWhether US government bond rates keep climbing toward the zone where they make bonds more attractive than gold, about 1.5 percentage points above where they stand now. If rates reach that level, we would rotate part of the gold position into long-dated bonds. We are not close to that point yet.
D21
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HOLDRising government bond rates and a stronger dollar weighed on everything the Compass holds today. China was the biggest drag, with the fund tracking large Chinese companies falling over two percent as investors rotated out of emerging markets. Gold pulled back about one percent, giving back some of last week's recovery, pressured by the same rising rates that make holding gold more costly in the short term. Energy stocks bucked the trend with a small gain, supported by continued oil supply concerns around the Strait of Hormuz. The brain's regime read still places the US firmly in an inflationary bust, the worst combination of slowing growth and rising prices. Government bond rates in the US hit a 16-month high this week at 4.7 percent, and the bond market is now pricing in rate hikes rather than cuts from the Federal Reserve (the US central bank). This is uncomfortable for the portfolio in the short term, but the thesis has not changed: the dollar is weakening structurally, hard assets and non-US economies will outperform over the cycle.WatchingWe are watching the June 17 Federal Reserve meeting closely. If the new Fed chair signals a rate hike is coming, that would be a significant shift in the macro landscape, and we would review whether the gold position needs trimming in favor of short-term bonds. We are not at that point yet.
D20
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HOLDGovernment bond markets are under real pressure right now. The interest rate the US government pays to borrow for 30 years briefly hit its highest level since 2007 today, a signal that investors are increasingly skeptical of the US dollar system. This is precisely the environment the Compass is designed for: when faith in the dollar weakens and the government has to pay more to borrow, hard assets like gold (a fund holding physical gold) and the Swiss franc ETF (a fund tracking the value of Switzerland currency against the dollar) tend to hold value. Most positions gained today. Energy stocks (a global oil-company fund) remain the weakest holding, weighed down by supply complexity even as oil itself trades near 111 dollars per barrel. The macro regime snapshot still reads the US as an inflationary bust (growth slowing, prices still rising) and China as a growth story, which supports the current positioning.WatchingWe are watching whether US government bond rates keep climbing toward a historic level described by the economist Maurice Allais: above 5.9 percent, bonds start paying enough to become more attractive than gold, and the strategy would call for rotating out of gold into long-term government bonds. That level is still well above where rates are today, so gold remains the right hold for now.
D19
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HOLDThe same forces that have pushed stocks and government bonds lower this week hit gold today, which is unusual but not unprecedented. When investors worry about rising inflation, they sometimes sell everything at once to raise cash -- including gold, which is normally a safe place to park value during uncertainty. The portfolio lost ground mainly because gold fell, not because anything changed about the underlying reason we own it. China's equity market (which the portfolio holds through MCHI, a fund tracking Chinese stocks) held essentially flat, which is consistent with the Gave and Darcet framework: China is in a separate macro cycle from the US and Europe, and today's sell-off was a Western story.WatchingWe are watching whether US government bond yields continue rising toward the level where they become a more attractive alternative to gold. We are still far from that point -- yields would need to climb significantly higher than where they are today before we would consider rotating. We are also watching whether the energy position (IXC, a fund holding global oil and gas companies) continues its slow recovery, which would confirm that the energy thesis is holding even as financial assets sell off.
D18
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HOLDMarkets are closed, but the weekend brought a sharp escalation in the US-Iran standoff. The president warned Tehran that time is running out for a deal, and oil prices climbed further (Brent around 111 dollars). This is the kind of geopolitical stress that reinforces the Compass thesis: hard money (gold, Swiss francs) and productive non-dollar assets tend to hold up better when the US becomes a source of global instability rather than a safe haven. The macro snapshot still shows the US in an inflationary bust (prices rising while growth slows), which is the regime where dollar-denominated financial assets struggle most. Our China position (MCHI, a fund tracking large Chinese companies) remains the weakest link at negative 1.5%, but the framework says Asia's recovery operates on a different timeline from the US slowdown. Nothing in this week's events changes the structural read.WatchingWe are watching whether the Iran situation escalates into actual military action versus remaining rhetorical. If oil breaks above 115 dollars and stays there, that would deepen the inflationary bust in the US and strengthen our energy and gold positions. If a deal materializes instead, oil drops and we would re-evaluate whether to trim the energy sleeve.
D17
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HOLDThe macro picture has not changed this weekend. The global economy remains in what Charles Gave and Louis Gave call an inflationary bust -- rising prices combined with slowing growth, where most assets struggle. The key development of the week is the US 10-year government bond yield (the rate the US pays to borrow money for ten years) pushing to 4.55 percent, its highest in about a year. This moves in the direction of the Allais rule, a framework from French economist Maurice Allais stating that when long-term borrowing rates get high enough, bonds start making more sense than gold as a store of value. We are still about 1.35 percentage points below the 5.9 percent level that would trigger that rotation, so gold remains the right anchor. Middle East tensions continue to keep oil prices elevated, which supports the energy fund (IXC -- a global energy company fund). No position has breached any trigger today.WatchingWe are watching whether US government bond rates keep climbing. If they reach about 5.9 percent, the Allais threshold is crossed and we would evaluate rotating out of gold and into long-term government bonds. The direction matters even if the level is still far away -- a rapidly rising yield gets there faster than a slowly rising one.
D16
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HOLDThis weekend, financial markets had their worst single day in months. US government bonds, which are IOUs where the government promises to pay you back with interest, hit their highest interest rate in over a year. When safe government bonds become more attractive, investors sell riskier assets to buy them: stocks fell, gold fell, and energy dipped. The Compass held through all of it. The bigger picture has not changed. The anti-dollar thesis that guides this portfolio is actually reinforced by what we saw this week. The meeting between President Trump and China's Xi Jinping, where Xi publicly warned of potential conflict over Taiwan, is exactly the kind of geopolitical uncertainty that sends investors toward assets outside the US financial system. Oil crossing $100 a barrel for the first time this year, driven by the ongoing conflict blocking Middle Eastern shipping routes, also strengthens the case for our energy holdings.WatchingWe are watching whether US government bond rates continue climbing. The Compass monitors a specific level at which bonds become more attractive than gold, and we would reduce the gold position if rates approach that threshold. We are not close today, but a continued move higher in bond rates over the coming weeks would bring that decision closer.
D15
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HOLDUS markets fell broadly on Friday as two forces hit simultaneously. Rising oil prices above $100 a barrel after shifts in US-Iran relations drove inflation fears higher, and investors grew concerned the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, might keep interest rates elevated for longer. Gold, which the Compass holds as a hedge against the dollar losing value, fell alongside stocks. This happens when inflation fears spike: when borrowing costs look likely to stay high, assets that earn no income like gold become less attractive. Our China stake fell on geopolitical unease after the Trump-Xi summit ended with no major agreements. Energy was the only winner as oil surged. This is the Compass's worst single day since launch, but no regime signal has changed.WatchingWe are watching whether US government bond rates keep climbing. The Gave/Darcet framework says if those rates get high enough, bonds start making more sense than gold as a safe haven, and we would rotate out of gold into long-duration Treasuries. We are tracking this direction but remain far from the level that would trigger a change.
D14
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HOLDThe Trump-Xi summit in Beijing produced a warning from China's president that Taiwan could lead to a collision, sending Chinese stocks lower and pulling our MCHI position (a fund tracking Chinese companies) down with it. But this is geopolitical noise, not a regime shift. The big picture still points the same direction: US producer prices jumped to 6% in April, the worst since the Ukraine war, driven by oil above $100 a barrel from the ongoing Iran conflict. That is exactly the inflationary-bust environment this portfolio was built for. Hard money like gold is holding steady, energy assets are recovering, and the dollar keeps weakening. We are not going to move the portfolio because of a diplomatic statement.WatchingWe are watching whether China's political situation around Taiwan escalates or stabilizes. If it stabilizes, MCHI should recover and the Asia thesis stays intact. The larger signal is energy: if oil stays above $100 for another month, the energy position (IXC, a fund holding global energy companies) should start recovering from its current cumulative loss.
D13
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HOLDThe biggest story today was Trump arriving in Beijing with tech CEOs including Jensen Huang of Nvidia and Tim Cook of Apple to negotiate trade agreements with China. Chinese stocks rose sharply on this news, and the portfolio benefited through its China fund (MCHI, a basket of the largest Chinese companies). Gold pulled back slightly, which is normal volatility after a strong run. The portfolio's framework, developed by economists Charles Gave and Louis-Vincent Darcet, identifies China as being in a deflationary boom, meaning the economy is growing while prices stay stable, historically favorable for stocks. The global macro snapshot confirms this: the US is rated cautious on equity and avoid on bonds, while China is rated favor on equity. Today's summit confirmed the regime thesis rather than changing it. US government bond yields climbed toward 4.49 percent today on wholesale inflation data, still well below the 5.90 percent threshold where bonds would become more attractive than gold.WatchingWe are watching whether the Trump-Xi summit produces a real trade agreement. A genuine deal reducing tariffs and easing tech export restrictions would strengthen the China thesis and could push Chinese stocks meaningfully higher. We are also watching oil: with the Iran conflict ongoing and oil above 100 dollars per barrel, the energy fund (IXC, which holds global energy company stocks) should eventually catch up to what oil prices are already signaling.
D12
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HOLDTwo forces pulled in opposite directions today. Official US inflation data for April came in at 3.8% annually (the highest reading since 2023), which is precisely the environment the Compass was designed to navigate: when the dollar loses purchasing power through inflation, assets that are not tied to the dollar tend to hold up over time. Meanwhile, peace talks between the United States and Iran broke down further, sending oil prices above $100 per barrel. Our global energy fund (IXC, a basket of large energy companies from around the world) was the only portfolio holding to rise today on that news, a small sign the energy thesis is alive even while its overall result since launch remains negative. Gold (GLD, a fund holding physical gold bullion) and our China fund (MCHI, a fund tracking China's stock market) both dipped, likely as investors sold assets across the board to cover losses elsewhere. The macro regime has not changed: the US remains in an inflationary bust (high prices, slowing growth), which is exactly the regime where the Compass should be avoiding US stocks and bonds and holding hard-money assets like gold and the Swiss franc (FXF). No signal has fired to trigger a trade.WatchingWe are watching whether US inflation stays persistently above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The April reading came in at 3.8%, driven largely by energy costs. If this energy-driven inflation feeds into broader price pressures (meaning things beyond just fuel get more expensive), the anti-dollar thesis strengthens and gold's medium-term outlook improves. We are also watching the Iran ceasefire. If tensions escalate further and oil climbs toward $120 per barrel, our energy fund should benefit and the regime read would shift toward a stronger stagflation signal, which would prompt a review of the current allocation.
D11
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HOLDMiddle East tensions are heating up again, with the US and Iran clashing over nuclear negotiations and control of the Strait of Hormuz (the narrow waterway through which about 20% of the world's oil passes). Oil prices jumped to $105 per barrel in response. For this portfolio, the energy position (IXC, a fund holding global energy companies) remains the weakest link at about 7% below entry, while gold continues to carry the book at nearly 7% gain. The anti-dollar thesis that drives this portfolio is intact: the US government's debt keeps climbing, the Federal Reserve (America's central bank) is stuck between rising prices and slowing growth, and hard assets like gold and commodities remain the preferred shelter. Nothing this weekend changes the positioning.WatchingWhether the Iran situation escalates from diplomatic tension into actual supply disruption. If oil pushes above $115 per barrel, that would accelerate the inflationary pressure the portfolio is designed to benefit from, but could also trigger a broader selloff that would hit riskier positions like China and Latin America.
D10
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HOLDMarkets are closed today, but the week ended with two important signals for this portfolio. The US dollar kept weakening against most major currencies, which is good news for gold (GLD, a fund that holds physical gold) because when America's money loses value globally, the rest of the world can buy gold more cheaply and demand rises. Gold ended the week up more than two percent. In the opposite direction, hopes for a peace agreement between the United States and Iran pushed oil prices lower, weighing on the energy fund (IXC, which owns shares in oil and gas companies worldwide). The 29-country framework underlying this portfolio still reads the world as an inflationary bust regime, where prices keep rising but economic growth is slowing. In that regime, gold, Swiss francs (FXF, a fund tracking the Swiss currency), and Chinese equities (MCHI, which holds Chinese companies that the framework rates as its most favored market) are the right places to be. The energy position is the one under review.WatchingWe are watching whether the negotiations between the United States and Iran move toward a formal, lasting agreement. If a peace deal is signed and oil from the Middle East flows again at full capacity, oil prices could drop significantly. That would break the thesis for holding an energy stock fund, and we would review rotating those funds into another expression of the inflation theme, most likely more gold or an additional commodity-backed position.
D9
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HOLDGlobal financial conditions shifted in a telling direction this week. American consumers reported the lowest confidence in recorded history, driven by fuel costs rising from the Iran-US conflict and the weight of import tariffs. This is the environment the Compass was built for: when confidence in the dollar and US-centric assets erodes, the hard money and non-dollar assets this portfolio holds tend to hold their ground. Gold, which the portfolio holds as its anchor against dollar weakness, kept climbing. The macro snapshot still reads inflationary bust globally, meaning growth is slowing while prices stay high. That regime validates the current positioning. Nothing this week changes the thesis.WatchingWe are watching whether the Iran conflict continues to push energy prices higher. If oil prices rise sustainably because global supply is disrupted, the energy position benefits. We are also watching China's economic data. If the domestic economy there keeps recovering while the US slows, the China equity and Latin America positions gain an additional tailwind.
D8
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HOLDThe world this week absorbed two competing forces: oil prices fell sharply as the US and Iran moved closer to a diplomatic deal, while gold kept climbing as investors around the world lose confidence in paper currencies, especially the US dollar. For the Compass, which bets on hard money, energy, and Asian markets, today was mixed but the thesis is intact. Gold (held through GLD, a fund that owns physical gold) rose again. Energy companies (held through IXC, a global energy fund) gained a little today after a difficult week, as oil briefly steadied. China stocks (held through MCHI, a fund tracking large Chinese companies) ticked up modestly. Argentina (ARGT) pulled back after a strong run. None of these moves change the underlying regime: the US dollar continues to lose purchasing power against hard assets, and the portfolio is positioned for exactly that.WatchingWe are watching whether the US-Iran diplomatic process leads to a lasting drop in oil prices. If oil falls and stays down for weeks, we would review the size of the energy position. IXC is approaching but has not yet reached the level where the mandate would require a formal re-evaluation. For now, the structural story behind energy companies — global demand rising, the sector historically under-owned in most portfolios — remains the stronger argument.
D7
Warn
HOLDThe United States and Iran are working toward a peace framework that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world oil supply flows. That news pushed oil prices down sharply today, which pulled the global energy fund (IXC, a basket of energy companies worldwide) lower. This is a political event, not a structural shift. The reason we hold energy is a decades-long cycle of underinvestment in global energy infrastructure, a framework developed by economist Charles Gave that says the world entered an expensive-energy phase around 2021 that will last years. A diplomatic agreement does not rebuild the oil fields and refineries the world stopped funding for twenty years. Gold kept rising, as investors stay focused on the long-term weakening of the US dollar rather than short-term political news. China, the Swiss franc fund, and Latin American positions were broadly flat. Holding everything.WatchingWe are watching whether the US-Iran peace talks produce a final, lasting agreement that genuinely keeps oil prices sustainably lower for many months. If that happens alongside a visible resumption of global energy investment, we would revisit the energy position. One peace framework does not change a thirty-year capital cycle, and the macro snapshot from Jeremy framework still classifies energy as a sector in favor.IXC (global energy fund) is now down 7.54% from entry, approaching the -10% threshold that triggers a formal thesis review.
D6
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HOLDGold rose sharply today on two overlapping reasons: US-Iran military tensions remain unresolved despite fragile ceasefire talks, which adds a fear premium on top of the broader pattern of dollar weakness driven by high US government debt. The macro framework guiding this portfolio, developed by economist Charles Gave, labels the current global environment an inflationary bust, meaning inflation stays elevated while growth softens. In that regime, hard money assets like gold and the Swiss franc tend to preserve value while conventional stocks and bonds lose ground. Energy holdings fell sharply because markets are betting a US-Iran peace deal would lower global oil prices, but the long energy cycle thesis, which rests on years of underinvestment in oil production, has not changed. No structural trigger fired today, so the portfolio holds.WatchingWhether US-Iran negotiations produce a genuine ceasefire that keeps oil prices lower for weeks, not just on a single news day. If that happens and oil prices trend down persistently, the energy thesis would need reassessment. For gold, the structural case holds until US government bond rates climb high enough to offer real income again, which is not close today.
D5
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HOLDThe big story this week has been tensions at the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway in the Middle East through which a significant share of the world's oil travels. Those tensions eased today after US officials confirmed commercial ships are transiting safely again. Gold (held here via GLD, a fund that holds physical gold bars) rose more than one percent, continuing the steady climb it has made over many months as investors look for stores of value outside the US dollar. China's factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in over a year, with the PMI index rising to 52.2 in April. The Gave/Darcet regime compass, a framework developed by economist Charles Gave for identifying which macro regime a country is in, places China in a deflationary boom, which is historically one of the best environments for that country's equities. Nothing today changed the thesis for any position in this portfolio.WatchingWe are watching whether the easing of Hormuz tensions holds. If oil prices stabilize at current elevated levels rather than falling back, that would strengthen the case for a stagflationary backdrop globally, reinforcing our energy holdings. We are also watching China's PMI trend: if it holds above 50 through the summer, the deflationary boom thesis strengthens and our China allocation becomes a stronger conviction hold.
D4
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HOLDThe conflict blocking a key shipping route in the Middle East is still the defining story for this portfolio. Oil prices rose above $100 a barrel internationally today after the United States announced efforts to escort stranded ships through the contested waterway, while Iran said it was reviewing a potential peace proposal. Our energy fund (IXC, which holds global oil, gas, and mining companies) is the direct beneficiary of the supply squeeze. Gold, our hard money anchor held via GLD (a fund that tracks physical gold), slipped slightly today on peace-talk optimism, but the longer trend of dollar weakness and inflation has not changed. Argentina (ARGT, a small high-conviction position in Argentina's stock market) was the strongest contributor today as Milei's reform agenda continues to attract investor confidence. The macro regime from the 29-country dataset remains unchanged: the US is in the regime where avoiding US stocks and holding real assets makes sense.WatchingWe are watching whether the Middle East ceasefire talks produce a real deal. A genuine resolution that reopens oil flows and brings energy prices back toward their pre-conflict levels would weaken the energy and inflation-protection thesis that underpins most of what this portfolio holds. We are also watching whether China's growth data continues to outperform expectations, since the case for holding Chinese stocks (MCHI) rests on China staying in an economic expansion while the US slows.
D3
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HOLDThe biggest story of the past week is the changing of the guard at the US central bank, the institution that sets interest rates for the entire American economy. Jerome Powell held his final meeting on April 29 and kept rates steady. Starting May 15, Kevin Warsh takes over. Investors spent the week debating whether Warsh will act independently or cut rates quickly to satisfy the White House, which has been publicly pressuring the Fed to lower borrowing costs. That uncertainty is exactly the kind of environment the Compass portfolio was built for: when confidence in paper money wobbles, hard assets like gold (GLD, a fund holding physical gold) and non-dollar economies tend to hold up better. Our holdings are aligned with that regime. No signal changed over the weekend.WatchingWe are watching whether the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for May 14 in Beijing produces real tariff reductions or mostly ceremonial gestures. Genuine trade relief would likely push our China holding (MCHI, a fund of large Chinese companies) higher and would signal an improving global trade environment. A meeting with no substance would probably leave MCHI flat. The summit outcome is the next concrete catalyst for this portfolio.
D2
Note
HOLDThis week, two things happened that the Compass was built for. First, the US dollar kept weakening, which means investors around the world are gradually losing confidence in it as a safe store of value. Second, oil prices climbed because a military confrontation between the US and Iran has effectively blocked one of the world's most important shipping lanes for oil tankers. Both of those trends push money toward the assets the Compass holds: gold, energy companies, and non-US markets. Nothing this week suggests the trend has reversed, so we are holding everything exactly as is.WatchingJapan's central bank has started raising interest rates for the first time in decades. If that trend continues, Japanese investors who have been parking money in gold may start bringing it back home instead. We are not close to that point, but it is the main thing that could eventually lead us to trim the gold position.
D1
Note
HOLDToday was a record-high day for US equities (S&P +0.54%, Nasdaq +0.69%) on Apple's earnings beat, but Compass did not catch the rally because it holds no US tech and no broad US equity. Energy got hit (IXC -1.32%) on the Iran-US peace report through Pakistan-based mediators with oil down ~2% to $103. Latin America was the second drag (ILF -0.62%, ARGT -1.50%) on a peso-jitter day reflecting Argentina pre-2027 uncertainty (Milei approval at 35.5%, dollar bond reversal-risk priced into 2028 maturities). Gold +0.64%, CHF +0.25%, and China +0.30% held the line. The brain read is unchanged: Allais rule firmly in gold mode (US 10Y at 4.42%, sell trigger at 5.9%, 150bp away), Gave quadrant still bottom-right (gold + energy regime), oil 7-year MA broken since March 27, today's oil dip is news noise inside a broken-trendline regime. The portfolio is positioned for the multi-year inflationary bust thesis, not for a one-day peace headline.WatchingWhether Iran-US peace process actually closes or reverses; the next US 10Y print toward 4.5% (still well below the 5.9% Allais sell); Argentina October 2026 election positioning; Hang Seng break of its 6-month flat range either direction.
D0
Note
The regime reads as late-cycle dollar debasement. US fiscal dominance is fading, Asian capital formation is accelerating, and hard money is outperforming paper. The Gave/Darcet compass points away from the dollar and toward the productive periphery.WatchingUS 10Y real yield direction. When real yields stop rising, the next leg of the commodity and EM cycle begins. Also watching CNY/USD for confirmation of Asia capital cycle thesis.
Most days the log says no change. That is the point.